2025-26 NBA SZN Preview: Southeast Division
The 2025-26 NBA season is upon us!
That means it’s time for our annual tradition of previewing the season, division by division, by asking two very important questions for each team:
What’s the case for the Over?
What’s the case for the Under?
LET’S GET IT.
5. Washington Wizards — 20.5
Is it another year of tanker’s delight in the capitol or is there something actually cooking in D.C.?
What’s the Case for the Over?
It’s a low number in the Eastern Conference!
There is veteran-laden mentorship present for the youngin’s from the jump in CJ McCollum and Khris Middleton. Adults in the room to show them the way.
Ever since Alex Sarr went toe-to-to with Jokic on a random Saturday night last March, we’ve thought of him differently. If you saw that game (first of all, you’re a sicko, just like us!) you know what Sarr is capable of.
It’s important to remember that the Wiz threw their rookies of last season into the fire:
Games started: Sarr 67, Bub 57, Kyshawn 38. That’s experience!
No. 6 overall pick Tre Johnson from Texas is the buzz of camp. A hard-working lights out shooter could be exactly what they need.
There’s another Johnson we like here (PAUSE). That would be AJ Johnson who’s lanky as hell but also extremely athletic and tons of fun. And don’t forget that Cam Whitmore is fresh in from Houston. AJ Johnson and Cam Whitmore could be a lethal fearless duo off the bench.
There is a lot of raw potential here and the expectations are low. The Wiz could be playing with house money. (Also, shoutout Joe House!)
What’s the Case for the Under?
It’s the Wizards. They’ve gone under in three straight.
Behind Sarr, the Wiz are lacking size. By god, that’s Marvin Bagley’s music. We still love Bagley, but he’s always injured. Like literally always.
Could there be too many young guys? Yes, that could be a problem.
Last season featured not one but TWO 16-game losing streaks. (That’s two more games than the Thunder lost all of last year. In a row. TWICE.)
Simply put: if you have a bottom-barrel offense and defense, which this team projects, it’s difficult to win games in the NBA. The Wiz also have a top-8 protected pick, so they really need to be one of the league’s worst five teams to guarantee keeping it.
Wiz Final prediction: You’re telling us it’s the East and the Wiz can’t win 21 games? Over 20.5 wins.
4. Charlotte Hornets — 27.5
The Hornets are one of many teams looking to put an injured season from hell behind them, finding some semblance of momentum and progress.
What’s the Case for the Over?
The Hornets Big 3 of LaMelo, Brandon Miller and rookie Kon Knueppel.
Last season the Hornets were 16-31 with LaMelo and 3-32 without. LaMelo, when he’s actually out on the court, can guide an offense and certainly chuck it. The 3s go in, too, as LeMelo had five made 3s in 18 games last season. (That’s in over a third of his games played!)
It’s almost impossible to have worse injury luck than the Hornets a year ago. Just having Brandon Miller out there at all will be a breath of the freshest air. Brandon Miller could end up being the best player on this team.
Rookie Kon Knueppel from Duke is the type of do everything, smart player this team needed to round them out.
Friend of the blog Miles Bridges put together a crazy run in early March as the team’s newfound (and only) No. 1 scoring option. Bridges had four 30-point games in two weeks, he can still score it.
The return of Tre Mann who set a Hornets franchise-record for most points scored off the bench in the first five games of the season before a back injury kept him out for the remainder of the year.
This team already had so much more direction and purpose under new head coach Charles Lee last season. Eventually Josh Green and Grant Williams will return and bring more stability, too.
What’s the Case for the Under?
The thing about injury prone teams is that they tend to remain… injury prone.
If LaMelo misses time, they’ll probably be cooked. Again.
The Hornets have no size. MF Mason Plumlee at starting center in the Big 25?!
Defensively there are a ton of questions. Bridges at the 4 with Plumlee and whoever else at center is a THIN back line.
The Hornets have hit the Under in three straight, winning just 27, 21 and 19 games the last three seasons.
Hornets Final Prediction: You already know that we are once again sounding the Young Surprise Team alarm! Over 27.5 wins.
3. Miami Heat — 37.5
This will be the first full season for the Heat without Jimmy Butler since 2018-19 — before The Bubble.
What’s the Case for the Over?
Eric Spoelstra is still one of the best coaches in the league and now there is no Jimmy drama hanging over this team.
Bam Adebayo adds to his game every season and he’s reliable, playing 70+ games each of the last three seasons.
Norman Powell is here to fill your scoring needs. Something the Heat more than needed.
Kal’el Ware is a reason for optimism after a great rookie campaign once he started getting real minutes. Even then, Ware played more than 30 minutes just 16 times. But he has the tools and potential to be a homeless man’s Wemby, prowling the paint and capable of stepping out and hitting the 3.
Davion Mitchell looked the part of Heat Culture once he made it to Miami, finding a home after Sacramento and Toronto.
Nikola Jovic, somehow already in his third season, had some games where you could see his ceiling, and if anybody can unlock his potential, it’s Spo.
Jaime Jaiquez was once a draft night steal but had a severe sophomore slump. Perhaps he can bounce back and perhaps rookie Kasparas Jakucionis can be the draft night steal many think him to be.
Heat Culture seems to always revive itself when we least expect it.
What’s the Case for the Under?
Offensive shot creation and shooting, especially without Herro to start the season.
Not having Tyler Herro from the jump is a most ominous start. Offseason ankle surgery has his return set sometime around late-December early-January.
Stylistically, it won’t be pretty. Not ever.
Whatever the hell happened to Terry Rozier once he arrived to South Beach.
The last time we saw the Miami Heat, it was the most lopsided playoff series in NBA history with an elimination game 55-point margin of defeat being the worst in Heat playoff franchise history.
Heat Final Prediction: This is the kind of season made for Spo and Heat Culture. Over 37.5 wins.
2. Atlanta Hawks — 47.5
The Hawks have retooled, taking a swing and bringing in a trio of offseason acquisitions to make a run in the East.
What’s the Case for the Over?
Welcome to ATL Kristaps Porzingis, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Luke Kennard.
The Hawks brought in more size, shooting and defense to give Trae Young more weapons at his disposal. That’s saying something considering he led the league in assists last season. It’s also a contract year for Ice Trae to prove his worth.
Jalen Johnson was humming along as a power dunking highlight reel before a torn labrum abruptly ended last season in January. Through the first 30 games of a season, Johnson was the first Atlanta Hawk in franchise history to average 20 points, 10 rebounds and 5 assists.
The Hawks needed some size and spacing and filled both shoes by getting Kristaps Prozingis this summer. Kennard was also brought in to provide additional long-range sniping, a career 43.8 percent 3-point shooter.
The Great Barrier Thief! Dyson Daniels led the league in steals and was the NBA’s Most Improved Player. Daniels was just rewarded with a 4-year, $100M extension.
Last year’s No. 1 overall pick Zaccharie Risacher started to really come alive at the end of the season with some big-time games. Risacher dropped a career-high 38 points in the final week (albeit against the Nets)
Onyeka Okongwu is finally fully free from the chains from Clint Capela.
What’s the Case for the Under?
Prior to last year, the Hawks had hit the Under in three straight and 5 of the last 7.
If Trae misses any time they’ll be without their offensive maestro.
Porzingis is anything but reliable on the availability front.
Not a whole lot of depth here, especially in the frontcourt. Could be too much Asa Newell, Moe Gueye and Charles Bassey.
Like the Clippers, every time that the collective buys into the Atlanta Hawks, they seem to be a letdown.
Hawks Final Prediction: Thought we were going to be over on this exciting team, but we are sadly not. Under 47.5 wins.
1. Orlando Magic — 50.5
The Zombie Magic hung on by a thread last year and made a major win-now move this summer.
What’s the Case for the Over?
The Magic addressed their biggest weakness in the offseason, bringing in 3-point shooting to add to their winning defensive-oriented formula.
His name is Paolo Banchero. Does anybody else remember the Magic at the beginning of last season? The Magic flew out of the gates with Paolo dropping a 50-burger. Banchero is the real deal. An All-Star hungry for more.
Hello Desmond Bane! The aforementioned 3-point marksman will look to save this offense that has a long history of being stuck in the thickest mud.
Franz Wagner has had his shooting struggles but now he can focus more on doing everything else.
Jalen Suggs can’t possibly be more injured than he was last season. Suggs can be the glue to this operation humming along at its finest.
Tyus Jones is a professional backup point guard who can set up the offense.
That first-round series with Boston was a ROCK FIGHT. The Magic in no way rolled over and gave up. They went down swinging every game, battling as best they could.
What’s the Case for the Under?
It’s a high number for a team that hasn’t won that many games since 2010-11 with Dwight Howard and Stan Van Gundy.
Even with Bane, the Magic still have to prove they can run a capable offense together.
The frontcourt is rather lackluster without a lot of pop or muscle. It kinda feels like the Magic are one more reliable big man away.
The Magic will still rely a lot on Anthony Black and Tristan Da Silva. Da Silva deserves more credit for playing 74 games and starting 38 last year. But can the youngin’s contribute enough for 51 wins?
It’s worth saying again: The Magic haven’t won 50 games in 15 years!
Magic Final Prediction: The number seemed too high at first but it’s soo high for a reason. Play the MF song! Over 50.5 wins.
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OPENING NIGHT is TUESDAY.
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