The 2025-26 NBA season is upon us!

That means it’s time for our annual tradition of previewing the season, division by division, by asking two very important questions for each team:

What’s the case for the Over?
What’s the case for the Under?

LET’S GET IT.

5. Utah Jazz — 18.5

The Jazz won 17 games last year, the fewest in franchise history, and they were rewarded with the No. 5 overall pick in the draft — a cautionary tanking tale.

What’s the Case for the Over?

Nobody would see it coming. That is precisely how some Young Surprise Teams come to fruition, we must remind you.

There’s a strong frontcourt duo here in Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler, providing a scoring and defensive backbone between the two.
After the All-Star break, Kyle Filipowski was let loose with free reign and Flip showed out with the opportunity.
Isaiah Collier turned into a rookie assist machine last season. Did you know he actually broke John Stockon’s Jazz rookie record for most assists?
No. 5 overall pick Ace Bailey is an unknown with a sizable chip on his shoulder, out to prove everyone wrong from the draft.
Keyonte George had some monster games again last year, still very capable of catching fire from 3. Keyonte had 10 games of making 5+ 3-pointers, upping the ante from eight such games his rookie season.

The Jazz do have some new vets here to show the youngins the way: Kevin Love, Jusuf Nurkic and Kyle Anderson are in Utah (for now).

What’s the Case for the Under?

The Jazz are fresh off the fewest wins in Utah Jazz franchise history and then they traded away some of their best players…

There’s always the notion that Danny Ainge wants to tank it out once again (despite whatever Utah’s brass says), continuing to sleep like an absolute baby all season long, constantly smiling like the Grinch.
NBA offenses geared around young guards are simply at a disadvantage from the jump.
The Jazz have not been able to win games on the road. Seriously. The last win for Utah on the road last year was on January 5th. They didn’t win a road game over the last three months of the season.

The Western Conference is an absolute gauntlet and the Jazz will be looked at as a punching bag.

Jazz Final Prediction: There should be plenty of fun Jazz games in Utah, but the youth and inability to win on the road has us taking Under 18.5 wins.

4. Portland Trail Blazers — 34.5

The Blazers were an under-the-radar Pacific Northwest Young Surprise Team last season. (That’s right, the Blazers won 14 games more than their preseason Over/Under win total, so they very much qualified.)

That success resulted in extensions for GM Joe Cronin and head coach Chauncey Billups.

What’s the Case for the Over?

The Blazers keep that momentum rolling into this season behind a unified group and strong defense.

Deni Avdija’s post All-Star break numbers were certifiably insane: 23.3 points, 9.7 rebs, 5.2 ast and 41.7% from 3. Now imagine if Advija pulled that off for an entire season…
Jrue Holiday’s arrival to RIP City brings in veteran leadership and stout defense on the wing.
Shaedon Sharpe had the Power Dunk of the season last year and once again showed he’s more than just a power dunker, improving to 18.5 points per game and shooting 55.7% on 2’s in his third season.
Scoot Henderson turned another corner. He didn’t play as much and he shot less, but his efficiency got better and he didn’t turn the ball over as often.
Cling Kong was coming around the mountain toward the end of the season, notching 5 double-doubles post-All-Star after just 3 the entire rest of the season. Speaking of young bigs: HELLO YANG HANSEN.

A new era of Blazers basketball is here and the trajectory is onward and upward.

What’s the Case for the Under?

It wasn’t too long ago at all that nobody believed in Chauncey Billups as a head coach…

Scoot will miss the beginning of the season rehabbing a September hamstring injury. And Simons offensive firepower is no longer here, either, shipped off to Boston.
Jerami Grant seems checked out.
Can Advija really play like he did post-All-Star for a full season? We know the NBA in March and April can be flukey.

The West is loaded and the Blazers will still be looked at as a prime opportunity to get a win.

Blazers Final Prediction: This one feels down to the wire already, but we believe in them running back last year’s results. Over 34.5 wins.

3. Minnesota Timberwolves — 49.5

The T-Wolves are fresh off back-to-back Western Conference Finals appearances and are hungry for more.

What’s the Case for the Over?

Anthony Edwards + a strong defense is a recipe for success.

Nobody else in the NBA made more 3s than Ant-Man last season and he pulled it off on insane volume. Legit 10 3-point attempts a game and 39.5 percent. Honestly, Ant might have fallen in love with the 3 a little too much. A more versatile and diverse game with some new post moves is expected this time.
Before running into OKC who storm walled the entire team, Julius Randle changed his playoff narrative and was playing his best ball. There were rocky moments last year, sure, but Randle more than eventually found his way in the wilderness of Minnesota.
Jalen McDaniels also took his game to a level we hadn’t seen from him before in the first and second round. McDaniels’ monster 25-point and 30-point games vs. the Lakers put the Wolves over the top.
NAZ REID. As reliable as they come with 81 and 80 games played the last two seasons.
More from the youngin’s, Terrence Shannon and Rob Dillingham, can alleviate some of the offensive burden that falls on Ant and 38-year-old point guard Mike Conley.

There is more continuity this time around for a team that made the big switch from KAT to Randle last season.

What’s the Case for the Under?

It goes for any team’s star player, but if Ant were to miss any time…

Mike Conley has a lot of point guard miles under the belt and too much could fall on the shoulders of the youngin’s Dillingham and Shannon. Will Chris Finch even trust them more this time around?
The frontcourt depth behind Gobert, Randle and Naz Reid is in question. Maybe Leonard Miller will finally arise for KOC?
Gobert has been a defensive mainstay in the league for a decade, but there has been some recent and expected slippage.

The T-Wolves are clearly more of a playoff team than one that chases regular season success.

T-Wolves Final Prediction: In the West, we have them a game or two below this number. Under 49.5 wins.

2. Denver Nuggets — 54.5

The Nuggets have reloaded the roster surrounding The Joker.

What’s the Case for the Over?

His name is Nikola Jokic and he’s still the best basketball player in the world.

Typing out Jokic’s stat line from last year doesn’t even feel real: 29.6 points, 12.7 rebounds and 10.2 assists is beyond absurd. And this could very well be the deepest team that Joker has ever had.
If Jamal Murray and his Blue Arrow can stay healthy.. It’s a big if but one that could always technically be on the table.
Cam Johnson is here in place of MPJ. We know Cam Johnson can be a winning player in that exact role from his days in Phoenix.
The Nuggets have depth and reliable veterans off the bench this time around by way of Bruce Brown, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jonas Valanciunas.
Christian Braun has continued to improve each of his first three seasons in the league and just inked a brand new 5-year, $125M extension.

Let’s not forget that the Nuggets took the eventual champion Thunder to 7 games and nearly beat them with an interim coach and shallow supporting cast.

What’s the Case for the Under?

The Nuggets know the real road to glory will show itself in the postseason.

The regular season might be where David (Dave!) Adelman gets to experiment and tinker with lineups and to make sure this team is healthy come April, May and hopefully June.
He’s the most reliable superstar in the game, but if Jokic actually missed any time…
This is an older team that fast teams might be able to run on. And how will the young, unproven guys develop here? Can they rely on Julian Strawther and Peyton Watson to be consistent where they have previously not been?

Denver has been above this line just twice with Jokic.

Nuggets Final Prediction: This team should be really good but the number is just too high. Under 54.5 wins.

1. Oklahoma City Thunder — 62.5

Last year’s champs look to run it back with the same core group and now with Championship experience under their belt.

What’s the Case for the Over?

The Thunder won 68 games last season and suffocated opponents from every direction.

The reigning MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, currently the best iso scorer in the league, with an all-time great defense surrounding him is the grandest recipe for success.
Jalen Williams is a prolific second scoring option and can just as easily take over games and be the best two-way player on the floor. J-Dub was third team All-NBA last year, giving the Thunder two of the best 15 players in the league.
People probably forget that Chet Holmgren only played 32 games last year. OKC still won 68 games while missing their third best player for three months. A healthier Chet and Hartenstein (who missed 25 games as well) only gives them a better chance to pile up wins.
The supporting cast and bench unit full of young guns should only improve. Aaron Wiggins could take a leap and showed more than capable of being a huge spark off the bench in the yoffs.
OKC still has plenty of assets to trade if they want to tinker or upgrade at any point.

When you control the turnovers and easy buckets in transition, you hold the upper advantage in your palm on a nightly basis.

What’s the Case for the Under?

It’s a HIGH number and they will be the hunted.

Jalen Williams had wrist surgery back in July after the Finals and it’s still unclear of his current status. Kind of an ominous start to the season…
Speaking of surgery, Nikola Topic’s NBA debut will be delayed as he has undergone surgery as well. (Of the testicular variety which never sounds good to say the freaking least.)
SGA played 76 games last year and although the Thunder went 5-1 without him, missing the MVP of the league for any period of time this year would be less than ideal.

Will the Thunder be as hungry during the regular season this time around knowing the long journey that awaits to get back to June?

Thunder Final Prediction: To be quite honest, we thought this line would be at least three wins higher. Over 62.5 wins.

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Season Preview Division by Division

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