The 2025-26 NBA season is upon us!

That means it’s time for our annual tradition of previewing the season, division by division, by asking two very important questions for each team:

What’s the case for the Over?
What’s the case for the Under?

LET’S GET IT.

5. New Orleans Pelicans — 30.5

The Pellies were an injured mess last season and look to bounce back with a new front office who is already wilding out.

What’s the Case for the Over?

Just two years ago, the Pelicans won 49 games and made the playoffs.

That team was led by Zion, still here and now skinny! The Zion of two years ago played 70 games which seems like a miracle now. UNLEASH POINT-CENTER ZION.
And unleash him with TREY MURPHY. You’ll be hard pressed to find bigger Trey Murphy stans than this here blog.
Jordan Poole is down in NOLA. Say what you will about Poole, but he can help a team offensively and is capable of shooting the lights out. And if Willie Green can get him to buy into his role.
Defensive specialist Herb Jones along with Jose Alvarado off the bench can provide positives on that side of the ball.
Dejounte Murray will return eventually. Murray never even got to play with Zion and Brandon Ingram together.

There is the glaring fact that this team HAS NO FIRST ROUND DRAFT PICK, so they are fully incentivized to win.

What’s the Case for the Under?

The Pelicans have a vast history of going Under, 6 out of the last 7 seasons.

Injuries have been an issue and until proven otherwise, it’s hard to count on players who consistently get hurt and end up being unavailable.
Defensively, it’s difficult to see a road map to where this roster can consistently keep up with the stacked West.
The big man situation is rather dire. We like Yves Missi and Kevon Looney, but they lack a certain firepower needed in today’s NBA to keep up with the top talented big men.

This team won just 21 games last season. And trading away next year’s first round draft pick for essentially no reason isn’t exactly the best start.

Pelicans Final Prediction: The number seems too low for the talent plus the no first round draft pick. Over 30.5 wins.

4. Memphis Grizzlies — 40.5

With Desmond Bane traded to Orlando and former head coach Taylor Jenkins long gone, the Grizz have a new look this season.

What’s the Case for the Over?

The Grizzlies won 48 games last season and this group always plays tough, especially at home.

When healthy, Ja is still one of the game’s most electrifying high-flying players with a propensity to take over and propel this team to victory.
And when Ja is with JJJ, the Grizz have the inside-outside offensive-defense one-two punch to hang with the best of them.
Bane is gone but KCP’s 3-point shot already looks miles ahead of whatever the hell happened last year down in the house of mouse.
Get ready to learn more of John Konchar and Santi Aldama, unheralded scrappy players who do all the little things.
Rookie Cedric Coward was written in the stars to land in Memphis for Verno, now let’s see if he can ball like they say.

Say what you will about Zach Kleiman firing Taylor Jenkins and trading away Bane, but he seems to always find talented players that fit well together.

What’s the Case for the Under?

The injuries piling up early are a precarious start.

Ja has been considered week-to-week with an ankle, uncertain for the opener.
Zach Edey will be out until at least Thanksgiving from ankle surgery this summer.
Brandon Clarke had a September arthroscopic knee procedure. Scotty Pippen Jr. is undergoing a toe procedure and will be out until at least January. Ty Jerome is out a month with a calf injury.

We don’t mind new head coach Tuomas Iisalo, but we think Taylor Jenkins didn’t get enough credit for having this team prepared to maximize their chances to win over the last 5+ years.

Grizzlies Final Prediction: Between the injuries and no more Taylor Jenkins, we are Under 40.5 wins.

3. Dallas Mavericks — 41.5

The Mavs (Nico Harrison) traded away their franchise superstar last season only to be rewarded with another one — what do the Basketball Gods have in store now?

What’s the Case for the Over?

The Mavs use their size to their grand advantage.

There is an absolute plethora of bigs here with AD, Gafford and Lively. AD will be happy as hell to play his beloved 4 position.
COOPER MF FLAGG. He looked as good as advertised in the preseason. Perhaps even better!
Can the Mavs get P.J. Washington going? When P.J. Washington played and scored at least 10 points, the Mavs were 10 games above .500 at 26-16 last season.
We know D-Lo and even Klay are offensively inclined to still catch fire at a moment’s notice.
Don’t sleep on Naji Marshall, fresh off of his best season yet given the opportunity and minutes to prove himself.

There is just good vibes going after the worst trade in NBA history was followed up by landing the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft Lottery with a 1.8 percent chance.

What’s the Case for the Under?

Availability and spacing/shooting.

There is a reason he’s earned nicknames like Availability Davis and the infamous Street Clothes. AD has played more than 56 games just once since the Bubble.
Too much D-Lo until Kyrie returns. D-Lo can have his moments but there is a reason why he’s bounced around so much from team to team.
Outside of D-Lo and Klay, who will consistently knock down 3s here? It’s a question we don’t know the answer to.

With so many bigs and size, smaller and faster teams might have their way with running and gunning.

Mavs Final prediction: We are rocking with the size down in Big D. Over 41.5 wins.

2. San Antonio Spurs — 44.5

The Spurs won 34 games last year even though Wemby didn’t play after All-Star, but can they stay healthy and compete in the loaded West?

What’s the Case for the Over?

His name is Victor Wembanyama.

He goes by Wemby — a 7-foot-5 imposing alien with powers to rip the fabric of the game. His 3-point range and defensive reach is insane. His presence on the court alone is a perpetual cloud of fear hanging over the opposition.
He’ll have more help, too. Eventually D’Aaron Fox will be back, currently out with a summer hammy. Get ready for the Fox-and-Wemby pick-and-roll to be spammed into oblivion.
Stephon Castle, the reigning Rookie of the Year, will get more run early on and he’ll be pushed by the No. 2 overall pick in this year’s draft, Dylan Harper.
Don’t forget about Jeremy Sochan who can focus more on doing what he does best, defense and rebounding. And Keldon Johnson off the bench to light some fire on the court. Devin Vassell is still here as well.
There are some new backup bigs here, too. Kelly Olynyk and Luke Kornet. We love Simmons dubbing them the Mayonnaise Men!

Head coach Mitch Johnson knows he’s the head honcho from the jump this time and with El Jefe himself as his mentor. Pop has instilled a culture that will continue to live on in the most meaningful and honorable way.

What’s the Case for the Under?

It’s a high number and the Spurs have hit the Under in three in a row and four of the last seven seasons.

Fox out at the beginning isn’t ideal and if Wemby misses an extended period of time again…
Could the guard play be too crowded and redundant?
The verdict isn’t completely out on Mitch Johnson as a head coach yet. He has some mighty big shoes to fill.

Is this team really poised to be 10 entire wins better than last year?

Spurs Final Prediction: In the Wild Wild West, we just think the number is too high. Under 44.5 wins.

1. Houston Rockets — 53.5

Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks are gone (and Fred VanVleet is out), but KD makes his next stop in H-Town.

What’s the Case for the Over?

The Jalen Green touches now go to Kevin Durant. That sounds pretty good considering KD is still one of the best scorers in the NBA.
Alperen Sengun had himself a summer at EuroBasket from what we hear. Sengun has continued on the path of being a Jokic-lite offensive hub who has also stepped up his defensive game as well.
Amen Thompson UNLEASHED. There will be a massive opportunity for Amen to showcase his supreme athleticism that jumps off the screen.
Defense is a great barometer for consistent regular season success and the defense here should again be one of the better units in the league.
Still just 22 years old, don’t be surprised if Jabari Smith Jr. has a breakout season under KD’s wing.

Head coach Ime Udoka has a very strong track record at this point of overachieving in the regular season.

What’s the Case for the Under?

Unreliable shooting and ball-handling.

Without FVV, a lot is going to fall on Amen Thomspon and Reed Sheppard. Both are talented, but can they show up and show out for a full 82 games in the spotlight?
KD isn’t exactly known for staying healthy and playing all season…
And for that matter, his teams don’t have a good track record of staying on an upward trajectory. (Or even staying together at all.)

How often do these big trades for older stars at the hands of consolidating talent and the future actually work out?

Rockets Final Prediction: The number seems a tad too high for a team with one too many questions. Under 53.5 wins.

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OPENING NIGHT is TUESDAY.

Season Preview Division by Division

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