The 2025-26 NBA season is upon us!

That means it’s time for our annual tradition of previewing the season, division by division, by asking two very important questions for each team:

What’s the case for the Over?
What’s the case for the Under?

LET’S GET IT.

5. Phoenix Suns — 30.5

The vibes and results last year were atrocious, but the Suns sent out KD, Bradley Beal and Coach Bud and brought in Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks and Jordan Ott.

What’s the Case for the Over?

The foul stench of KD, Beal and Coach Bud is long gone!

Free from the chains of KD sinking the ship, this is Devin Booker’s team again and Devin Booker’s team alone. It will be cookouts with Book as he’ll be the main ball-handler, facilitator and scorer in the desert.
Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks will have a Houston-sized chip on their shoulder to compete at the highest level every night, set out to prove the Rockets should have kept them over a 37-year-old KD. Green scored 21.0 points a game last year and Brooks shot 39.7 percent from 3.
Second-year man Ryan Dunn did have some eyebrow-raising games and moments last season, most notably a power dunk on Giannis.
Rookie Khamna Maluach’s potential was on full display in the preseason finale against the Lakers, showcasing his size, soft touch around the rim and length on defense.
The guard play here should be an interesting experiment. First-time head coach Jordan Ott should have no pressure here compared to the last few coaches. And it sounds like he wants to feature an offense focused around pace and a bunch of 3s.

It’s a low number and this team has a lot of guys out to prove something.

What’s the Case for the Under?

This franchise has been on a rapid descent since the moment that new owner Mat Ishbia showed up and burned this place to the ground.

After Booker, who will be the main ball handler after Jalen Green? We know Jalen Green can be rocky in that department, especially depending on the night.
The big-man situation is rather unproven. The Charlotte bigs of Mark Williams and Nick Richards aren’t exactly known for being reliable.
Phoenix might look to cash in on some of their assets to build a more rounded team going forward.

There just isn’t a lot of depth here and the West is loaded as you might know or have seen pointed out on this here blog.

Suns Final Prediction: Based on the vibes alone, give us the Over 30.5 wins.

4. Sacramento Kings — 35.5

Light the Beam feels like an eternity ago as the Kings tore down their successes of two seasons ago to ultimately become the Chicago Bulls.

What’s the Case for the Over?

Nobody would see it coming.

Domantas Sabonis, DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine as an offensive trio should be capable of scoring the basketball. That’s a pretty good compliment.
What if Olympic / International star Dennis Schroder pretends the regular season is the Olympics?
Keegan Murray got paid the big bucks. His 3-point shooting will be welcomed when he returns from injury.
Where were you on the random Monday night last November when Keon Ellis turned into prime Ray Allen? Ellis drilled NINE 3’s. (Problem: the Kings lost that game to the Hawks.)
Russell Westbrook’s last stand… in the Sac?

This team did turn a bit of a corner after Doug Christie was brought in as the interim coach. Now he has has a full training camp to prepare his own way as the new head coach.

What’s the Case for the Under?

This roster doesn’t make sense and the defense is going to be garbage.

Keegan Murray to miss at least 4-5 weeks after thumb surgery is an ominous start. His 3-point shooting will be missed immensely.
How will this defense get stops? Seems like an important question!
Adding in Russell Westbrook to this mix of players… very Kangz.

The backup 4 situation here is as dire as it gets. We’re talking Doug McDermott and Dario Saric in the big 25.

Kings Final Prediction: There just isn’t a number that could have been low enough to stop us. Under 35.5 wins.

3. Los Angeles Lakers — 46.5

LeBron won’t be available on Opening Night for the first time in his career, but Luka Doncic gets his chance to light LA on fire.

What’s the Case for the Over?

LukaMagic.

Boy Wonder takes the LA stage with everything to prove.
If anybody could figure out a minor back issue and return ready to roll, it’s LeBron. We only have 22 years of evidence of this.
From undrafted to averaging 20 points per game for the Lakers, Austin Reaves’ glow up has had direction the last four years: Up.
Maybe Grandpa Ayton just needed to get to LA. (With Luka!)
A healthy Vando can patch together this otherwise underwhelming at best defense.

It’s the Lakers. They are going to do everything in their power to try to win.

What’s the Case for the Under?

LeBron is 40 and already dealing with a sciatica issue. Not the start you’d hope for.

Defense. What is their defensive identity? Vando is going to have a major responsibility to help clean up here.
How much does Marcus Smart have left in the tank? It’s been a pretty rapid decline thanks to injuries.
They still lack a proven big man.

Opponents always try to show out under the bright lights.

Lakers Final Prediction: It’s the Lake Show, so you already know we’re Over 45.5 wins.

2. Golden State Warriors — 46.5

The first full season of Steph, Dray and Jimmy.

What’s the Case for the Over?

Where it previously looked like the Warriors were left for dead, Jimmy Butler’s arrival rejuvenated this team, infusing them with heart and soul.

Nobody was happier to see Jimmy Butler’s arrival to the Bay than Steph who’s overall burden was alleviated greatly. Steph can still drop 50, which he did twice last year, both after Butler showed up.
Jimmy Beans from the jump. With Draymond to hold down the defense and muscle.
Al Horford is here to be a professional big man, his specialty.
People forget the Warriors started out last season red hot when they still had De’Anthony Melton.
Eventually Jonathan Kuminga will be traded and that should net out some positive vibes here at the very least.

The Dubs closed out last season 23-8 with a top-10 offense and the No. 1 defense in the NBA over that span. And this time they will try to avoid the Play-In altogether, which likely means getting Over this number of wins.

What’s the Case for the Under?

Aging stars that aren’t getting any younger. (Shoutout the Buckets pod for the Death Lineup to The Close to Death Lineup banger.)

Size and rebounding are usually an issue. While Al Horford is here now, he’s still 39 years old.
Even if it looks okay right now, the Curious Case of Jonathan Kuminga still hovers over this team.
This is about the time when the Buddy Hield Experience takes a turn for the worst.

It always felt like the Light Years Ahead comment would bring forth basketball karma and we already saw the abyss of 2019-20.

Warriors Final Prediction: This team is a tad too old for our liking. Under 46.5 wins.

1. Los Angeles Clippers — 48.5

It was an offseason in which they were in the headlines for the wrong reasons and the Clips gotta be excited to just play basketball on the court.

What’s the Case for the Over?

A healthy Kawhi + regular season Harden.

Bout nuff said right there. Kawhi can still be a robot and Harden is a regular season wins system all unto himself. Even now.
The Harden-Zubac pick-and-roll is one of those chef’s kiss type of plays we don’t mind seeing spammed all game.
John Collins made it out of Utah and playing meaningful ball with professional vets has got to have him excited for the season.
Oh yeah, Bradley Beal is here. Expectations are low, but perhaps that’s exactly what he needs. The same goes for Chris Paul’s return to LAC.
Kris Dunn was a defensive menace last season. It was awesome to see him revive his NBA career.

Ty Lue is still widely regarded as one of the best X’s and O’s coaches in the league. And this defense was always prepared and on point with Jeff Van Gundy’s arrival.

What’s the Case for the Under?

This is a high number for an old team.

Counting on Kawhi Leonard has not proven to be a trustworthy notion.
Norm Powell was a huge contributor to this team’s success last season and Norm Powell is now kicking it in South Beach.
The last time we saw this team in the playoffs, they pooped their pants in Game 7. Not a great look. Not something easily forgotten.

Every time it seems like everybody gets their hopes up for the Clippers, they end up being a letdown.

Clippers Final Prediction: We are ready to get hurt! Over 50.5 wins.

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We. Are. Back!

OPENING NIGHT is TUESDAY.

Season Preview Division by Division

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