It’s a special time of the year, folks.

The 2026-27 NBA season is upon us!

That means it’s time for our annual tradition of previewing the season, division by division, by asking two very important questions for each team:

What’s the case for the Over?
What’s the case for the Under?

LET’S GET IT.

5. New Orleans Pelicans — 28.5

The Pelicans have hit the Under on their win total in 4 of the last 5 seasons, and this year’s line is their lowest since the 2012-13 season when AD was a rookie.

What’s the Case for the Over?

What if… this is the year that Zion puts it all together? … Listen, sometimes it’s when everyone has counted you out and moved on — perhaps that’s when Zion finally returns back into his 2022 All-Star wrecking-ball form.

In the wake of Brandon Ingram’s departure from NOLA, Trey Murphy III saw his efficiency increase although his usage basically stayed the same. There’s a lot of mouths to feed here, but Murphy is the one who scored 30+ points ten times last season (Zion and Saddiq Bey both had 5 such games).
A quiet acquisition this summer: the Pels got Bennedict Mathurin late in free agency. Mathurin has always been a player that we believe in. He plays with fire, an innate intensity that you can’t teach.
Derik Queen had a strong rookie campaign and many times looked like the best player on this team. Queen has the goods and racked up two triple doubles last year while making it look easy.

If Dejounte Murray can stay healthy and actually play at long last, his point-guard skillset and assists would help considerably, as they did in his 14 games at the end of last season.

Maybe Jamahl Mosley is the perfect player-development coach to get this team in line.

What’s the Case for the Under?

There are just so many guys on this roster without a true leader and true pecking order. If you asked a group chat to name the best player on this team, every single person would probably give you a different answer.

Can Zion and Queen stay on the floor together? Those lineups pose a set of problems defensively.
Besides Herb Jones (and maybe Dejounte Murray if he can still move the way he used to), this team is lacking in plus defenders.
There is also a scarcity in reliable 3-point shooting.

It’s such a low number that Vegas doesn’t seem to believe in this team one bit.

The Pelicans were 9-45 last season vs. teams above .500…

Pelicans Final Prediction: Sadly, there is just too much uncertainty here. Under 28.5 wins.

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4. Memphis Grizzlies — 29.5

The Grizz of the early 2020’s that looked like the NBA’s next Western Conference powerhouse is officially officially no more.

They once looked the way the Thunder do now, but with the trades of JJJ at the deadline and Ja this summer, there isn’t a player left on this team from those brief glory days.

It’s a new wave of young talent led by No. 3 overall pick Cameron Boozer.

What’s the Case for the Over?

Say what you will about GM Zach Kleiman and the way he handled previous head coach Taylor Jenkins departure (and the previous stars on this team), but he finds talent in the draft and puts together a collection of players that form a team.

Cam Boozer fell in the Grizzlies lap at No. 3 and he’s looked fantastic in preseason. Boozer should have ample opportunity to cook this year in Memphis.
Offseason acquisition Jerami Grant can still get buckets. Grant averaged just shy of 19 points on the Blazers the last four seasons. Nothing crazy, but the Grizz will need his offense.
There is plenty of optimism surrounding Year 2 Cedric Coward on the wing. People forget that in his third ever NBA game, Coward shot a perfect 6-for-6 from 3. He’s a new wave 3-and-D player to keep an eye on.

The Grizz always play tough in Memphis, one of the NBA’s premiere home-court advantages.

This win total line has been on the rise.

What’s the Case for the Under?

There isn’t much reliable and proven size on this team.

Can Zach Edey and Quinten Post stay on the floor? Neither has averaged more than 26 minutes a game. How many games will Edey play?
Shot creation and distribution is certainly a question. Ty Jerome averaged a career high 5.7 assists here last season, but he only played 15 games. The preseason has seen its fair share of Ty Jerome…
Is Jerami Grant really coming off the bench for the Grizz? It’s pretty rare to see that from the highest paid player on the team (by a country mile).

The longest tenured player on this team? That would be GG Jackson, who is 21 years old.

Grizzlies Final Prediction: Give us some Grit ‘N Grind vibes and we’re Over 29.5 wins.

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3. Dallas Mavericks — 33.5

Not even two years removed from the Luka trade that shook the NBA to its core, AD is gone and the Mavs have some future picks to show for it.

Thank the basketball gods they at least have Cooper Flagg.

What’s the Case for the Over?

Flagg showed exactly why he had so much hype surrounding him for years. Any stats that include “second to only LeBron” are fucking LEGIT. So is becoming the youngest player in NBA history and first teenager ever to score 50 points.

Coop will have the benefit of playing with Kyrie this time, too. His point guard last year was D'Angelo Russell and Ryan Nembhard. Apologies to D-Lo and Nembhard, but they are certainly no Uncle Drew.
The Mavs have some sneaky dawgs coming off the bench: Naji Marshall is a hard-nosed player, Marcus Sasser is tougher than walrus grease, and Caleb Martin… well, never forget the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals when Caleb Martin basically turned into a real life NBA Jam player stuck on fire for two weeks.
No. 9 overall pick Morez Johnson has had a quiet preseason, but he does have the benefit of knowing his head coach from their time together at Michigan.

College coaches to the NBA do not have the best track record recently, especially from the University of Michigan (looking at you John Beilein), but that’s precisely why Dusty May will be trying to eek out each and every win.

What’s the Case for the Under?

Sophomore slumps are a real thing and must be mentioned as a possibility even for the almighty Cooper Flagg.

How will Uncle Drew move post-torn ACL? Kyrie’s game depends on his speed, agility and shiftiness.
After Daniel Gafford and Derrick Lively, there just isn’t much size on this roster. Dwight Powell is still here, though. His 13th season in Dallas! (Update: Powell has been waived…)
There is a severe drop off to the third-best player on this team.

The Mavs have hit the Under 3 of the last 4 years and all three of those Unders haven’t been close at all.

The Mavs playing two preseason games in China — those long ass jet lag trips typically do not bode well for NBA teams at the start of the regular season.

Mavs Final prediction: Need our lick back on this one. Over 33.5 wins.

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2. Houston Rockets — 47.5

The Rockets were embarrassed in the 1st round of the playoffs by LeBron and the Luka-less Lakers, but Fred VanVleet returns to help right the ship in Houston this season.

What’s the Case for the Over?

Having a true point guard should is the exact ingredient that the Rockets were missing.

Kevin Durant should once again (forever and always) be motivated to restore his name with his game after being nowhere to be found in the playoffs when the Rockets needed him most.
Alperen Sengun has improved every year and continues to do a pretty damn good impression of Jokic lite.
Amen Thompson and Reed Sheppard were asked to do a lot last season filling the FVV void at the point. Getting back to their main roles (defense and chaos for Thompson and shooting for Sheppard) should pay dividends.

Head coach Ime Udoka is known for maximizing regular season wins.

What’s the Case for the Under?

Vibes and chemistry are such an important and undervalued aspect of today’s NBA and there is no denying that the vibes here were completely thrown off after KD’s burner came to light.

Not to mention how the vibes and team chemistry always goes south when KD is involved…

The Rox were bottom-3 in 3-point attempts last season and last in 3-point percentage in the playoffs. Spacing is a serious issue for any lineup with both Amen Thompson (21.6% last szn) and Sengun (30.5%).
Replacing Dorian Finney-Smith and Josh Okogie with Marcus Smart and Bogdanovic Bogdanovic does add more shooting, but it also makes the Rockets smaller and less athletic. Relying more on smaller guards is something to monitor.
This team is pretty dang old. A whopping six players on the roster have more than NINE years in the NBA under their belts. (KD, Smart, Clint Capela, Steven Adams, Bogdanovic and VanVleet.) It’s a young man’s game. We know this.

The Rockets won 52 games each of the last two years and now their win total is 47.5??

Rockets Final Prediction: Getting in bed with Vegas on this one. Under 47.5 wins.

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1. San Antonio Spurs — 60.5

The Spurs arrived ahead of schedule last season, winning 62 games and toppling the defending-champion Thunder in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals.

They did fall short of their ultimate goal, losing to the Knicks in The Finals in rather infamous fashion.

What’s the Case for the Over?

His name is Victory Wembanyama. The Alien with the size and power to rip through the fabric of the game. Wemby is 22 years old and entering his fourth season. Folks, he’s just getting fucking started.

Derek Harper was an absolute nailsman in the WCF, torching OKC’s bonafide defense as a rookie. Don’t look now but Wemby and Harper could be this generation’s version of Shaq and Kobe. Gulp.
Stephon Castle had the opposite of a sophomore slump, improving every element of his game after a Rookie of the Year campaign.
If anybody has a chip on their shoulder entering this season wanting to get the bad taste of how last season ended, it’s De’Aaron Fox — who had all summer to simmer and let the motivation fuel his fire.

Tobias Harris is precisely the kind of addition the Spurs needed, a failsafe and additional scoring threat at the 4.

What’s the Case for the Under?

It can be said for the superstar of any team but especially here: Wemby missing any time puts getting to 61 wins in serious jeopardy.

What if The Finals broke Fox? A lot of fans sure didn’t have his back…
The Spurs now know they have what it takes to make a run at a Championship in June, so will they take the regular season as seriously this year?
Tobias Harris is the type of player that always seems like a good fit on paper, but it does not always translate on the court.

60.5 is a HIGH as fuck line. Prior to last season, the Spurs hadn’t won more than 34 games since 2018-19…

Spurs Final Prediction: No way are we in the business of trying to fade Wemby’s ambitions again. Over 60.5 wins.

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Season Preview Division by Division

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