It’s a special time of the year, folks.

The 2026-27 NBA season is upon us!

That means it’s time for our annual tradition of previewing the season, division by division, by asking two very important questions for each team:

What’s the case for the Over?
What’s the case for the Under?

LET’S GET IT.

5. Milwaukee Bucks — 25.5

Giannis is gone.

After 13 seasons in Milwaukee that included:

Two MVP’s in 2019 and 2020
Defensive Player of the Year in 2020
A Championship in 2021

The Bucks traded Giannis away to South Beach (with Bobby Portis) for Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kel'el Ware, Kasparas Jakucionis, No. 13 pick Nate Ament, two First-Round picks in 2031 and 2033, a First-Round pick swap in 2030 and a Second-Round pick in 2033.

And so, the rebuilding post-franchise superstar begins…

What’s the Case for the Over?

It’s a low number!

And they have nothing to lose.

Does this team have a sneaky amount of good shooting? Herro, A.J. Green, Ryan Rollins, Gary Trent and even Myles Turner… The answer is yes.
Herro is capable of handling the workload of a No. 1 scoring option. He did it for years in Miami both with and without Jimmy Butler.
Turner and Ware is an intriguing big man duo that can stretch the floor and swat some shots.

This team can play FAST. A watered down Midwest version of last year’s Heat with Turner in place of Bam.

New head coach Taylor Jenkins had a history of both winning and cashing win total Overs with the Grizzlies.

What’s the Case for the Under?

In a league driven by superstars, this team lacks a player in the top 70 (!!) according to ESPN’s player rankings. Say what you will about ESPN’s player rankings, but is Herro in your top 70?

Defensively, especially on the perimeter, there are some glaring concerns. Bucks games should be shootouts of the highest variety.
Looking at the fellas on this roster… it sure seems like there might be a few too many Me-Guys. That could be the recipe for disaster.
Kyle Kuzma preseason lowlights.

Tanking is less incentivized now, but in the loaded East, the Bucks simply might not have a choice.

Player development will also be the name of the game.

Last one: the third highest paid Milwaukee Buck this season? Damian Lillard.

Bucks Final Prediction: Going against the grain on this one and daring to be different. Over 25.5 wins.

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4. Chicago Bulls — 28.5

The Bulls moved on from Coby White at last season’s trade deadline and then proceeded to draft their next prized-possession from UNC: No. 4 overall pick Caleb Wilson.

What’s the Case for the Over?

Caleb Wilson looked dominant in Summer League and very good in the preseason. That is certainly no guarantee for success in the NBA, but it is encouraging to see.

Wilson will have the benefit of playing with a professional point guard in Josh Giddey, an old school pass-first PG who regularly sets up the offense. Giddey averaged a career high 9 assists and 17 points per game last season.
The Bulls needed to find a reliable big man and somebody to go out and get them buckets in free agency and they landed both in Nic Claxton and Norm Powell.
Lithuanian Matas Buzelis (Lil Buzi Vert! — RIP Stacey King) has shown serious flashes of brilliance in his first two seasons and being surrounded by more talented players should only help his growth in the NBA.

New Bulls head coach Tiago Splitter coached the Blazers to 42 wins (preseason line of 35.5) in his first season as the interim head coach last year in Portland — and that was in a surprise spur-of-the-moment scenario because Chauncey Billups was arrested for involvement in a rigged Mafia poker operation. (The NBA is wild, man lol)

Splitter has the benefit of a full offseason and training camp to prepare for the season this time around.

BONUS: The Bulls have been Over this number six years in a row…

What’s the Case for the Under?

For as deep as most teams appear on paper with a long list of NBA players on their roster, this one is rather lacking.

Patrick Williams is still here. Mr. Consistently Inconsistent. Undersized and out of position more times than not. He’s an okay player that we had much higher hopes for.
There is a potential lack of proper offensive spacing with unreliable shooters on the court. (Giddey, Buzelis, Claxton, Pat Williams, Okoro…)
The two most important guards, Giddey and Powell, both missed a chunk of time last season dealing with injuries. Missing one or both would really throw a wrench into the Bulls offense.

It is concerning that the Bulls win total is a few wins lower than last year when it seems like they have more talent.

That’s probably just because the East has gotten that much better — which presents its own set of problems and case for the Under.

Bulls Final Prediction: We are only asking for the Bulls to stay above a number they’ve been over for six years in a row. Over 28.5 wins.

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3. Indiana Pacers — 43.5

Last year was a lost season.

Without Tyrese Haliburton, the Pacers won just 19 games, their fewest in franchise history.

But now the HALIBAN is BACK.

What’s the Case for the Over?

Forever and always: IT’S THE PESKY PACERS. This is what they do.

Hali says he’s healthy and ready to go. He has a new weapon down low in Ivaca Zubac. People forget that just two years ago Zubac averaged 16 and 12 and was Second Team All-Defense.
Many remnants of the Pesky Pacers core from their Finals run remain: Pascal Siakam, Aaron Nesmith, T.J. MF McConnell, Andrew Nembhard and Obi Toppin. (James Johnson, too.)
Don’t sleep on the quiet addition of Kelly Oubre, who should be a seamless fit in the Pacers style of play.

Head coach Rick Carlisle has 24 seasons of head coaching experience under his belt. Prior to last year’s lost season, Carlisle had the Pacers improve their win total each year in his return to Indiana.

What’s the Case for the Under?

Will Hali be able to move the same post-injury? His quick herky-jerky game depends on it.

Not still here from the Pacers Finals run: Bennedict Mathurin and Myles Turner. Important pieces that could be missed, especially over time. Mathurin and Turner were third and fourth on the team in points per game in the 2024-25 season.
The element of surprise might be gone and the East is absolutely more stacked than two years ago.
Defensively, can they find that same level of harmony and togetherness? The previous group struck nirvana gold, achieving a grand rhythm of cohesion not believed to be in their bag.

Switching from a spacing center in Myles Turner to an interior center in Zubac would affect the offensive flow.

And can they shoot the ball lights out again?

Pacers Final Prediction: It’s unsettling how much we love this one. Over 43.5 wins.

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2. Cleveland Cavaliers — 47.5

Despite the Cavs disappointing performances in the playoffs the last few seasons, they have faired much better in the regular season and return the core of the team.

What’s the Case for the Over?

The Cavs won 52 games last year and 64 the year before. The East was much softer back then, yes, but this is a team that wins games in the regular season.

Donovan Mitchell and James Harden are two regular season merchants (except that time when Mitchell went insanely nuclear in The Bubble). In 26 games last year after the deadline, the Cavs went 19-7 with Harden in the lineup with Mitchell and Harden combining to average over 46 points and 12 assists.
Staggering Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen down low, the Twin Towers (the Block Brothers!), gives this team an interior back line defense and a rim-running big for 48 minutes a night.
The big offseason addition here is Peyton Watson who does fill in the position the Cavs needed. And Don’t sleep on Jaylon Tyson and Craig Porter Jr. — lesser known and deeper pulls that contribute to winning basketball.

Head coach Kenny Atkinson will be out to prove those analytics were right.

What’s the Case for the Under?

How much does Harden have left in the tank? He has 17 seasons worth of miles under his belt.

Overall health: only three players managed to play 65+ games last season. Mitchell (70), Tyson (66) and Mobley (65).
Offensive spacing and shooting when Mobley and Allen share the floor together remains a legitimate worry until Mobley finds a consistent jumper.
The overall depth of this team seems thinner than usual and in comparison to other teams. Case and point: the Cavs signed Mario Hezonja who hasn’t played in the NBA since… The Bubble.

The Cavs have a difficult schedule that includes 16 back-to-backs. No team in the NBA has more.

Cavs Final Prediction: Was going to say Under but then remembered that one time in Vegas at Summer League when Kenny Atkinson dapped us up. Over 47.5 wins.

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1. Detroit Pistons — 49.5

The Pistons steam rolled to 60 wins (!!) last season, but they were quickly called the worst No. 1 seed in NBA history after going down 3-1 to the Magic in the first round.

Detroit did pull off the comeback in that series, but the damage was done and they did not come close to living up to the expectations they set in the regular season.

What’s the Case for the Over?

Two seasons in a row, the Pistons have gone over their win total by an absurd margin.

2025-26: Over 46.5 | 60
2024-25: Over 25.5 | 44

They have the regular season blueprint down.

Cade Cunningham has continued to blossom each of the last three seasons, all the way to earning a spot on First-Team All-NBA last year.
Jalen Duren finally signed his contract at long last on Oct 3. For as terrible as he was in the playoffs, Duren was dominant in the regular season, averaging 19 and 10 — an All-Star and Third-Team All-NBA selection.
John Collins is in Mo-Town now to help space the floor and help replace the Tobias Harris minutes.

Head coach J.B. Bickerstaff has hit the Over four of the last five seasons as head coach going back to his last three years in Cleveland.

What’s the Case for the Under?

The Pistons quietly lost some of their key components this offseason.

Tobias Harris was third on the team in scoring and minutes per game. Beef Stew’s toughness has been integral to their identity.

Any lineup with Ausar Thompson and Jalen Duren is at a major offensive spacing and shooting disadvantage.
Duncan Robinson and Kevin Huerter are here to alleviate those offensive spacing/shooting concerns, but they pose the flip-flop problem defensively, more so Robinson who is usually the target by opposing offenses.
There is a lack of a proven second playmaker and ball handler after Cade and this was a team that gave up a lot of turnovers and was very low in 3-point attempts last season (29th).

It can be said in the case for the Under for any East team, but it seems to apply here more so than most: this ain’t the Eastern Conference of the last two years, that’s for damn sure.

The Pistons won 60 games last season and the line is now 49.5!?

Pistons Final Prediction: The Pistons made us look so silly last year, but we are sticking with Under 49.5 wins.

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We. Are. Back!

OPENING NIGHT is TUESDAY.

Season Preview Division by Division

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