It’s a special time of the year, folks.

The 2026-27 NBA season is upon us!

That means it’s time for our annual tradition of previewing the season, division by division, by asking two very important questions for each team:

What’s the case for the Over?
What’s the case for the Under?

LET’S GET IT.

5. Washington Wizards — 34.5

After three years spent toiling in the post-Bradley Beal era, the Wiz up and traded for both Trae Young and Anthony Davis seemingly out of nowhere.

They also have the No. 1 overall pick in AJ Dybantsa from BYU.

What’s the Case for the Over?

One of the best ways to help accelerate the development of young talent (shoutout Gootz!) is to surround younger players with experienced veterans. The Wiz have done just that.

It seems safe to say that both Ice Trae and AD will have a chip on their shoulder after being spurned by their former teams. Can this inside/outside combo find enough left in the tank to make a run at a seven games below .500 record? The bar is low.
AJ Dybantsa gets to play from Day 1 with three former All-Stars. That’s something most No. 1 overall picks do not get the fortune of.
Alex Sarr and Kyshawn George will have the opportunity to actually play ball without the burden of carrying the team. People forget that Sarr is just 21 and George is only 23.

The Wiz have hit their Under win total in four straight years and this year’s line is double their 17 wins from last season.

What’s the Case for the Under?

For starters, this is the Washington Wizards we’re talking about.

Trae Young and Anthony Davis — not exactly a duo known for being beacons of health. AD has played more than 56 games just once since The Bubble. (If and when AD misses time.. by golly that’s Deandre Ayton’s music!) Ice Trae just had his career-low 15 games played last season, dealing with a right MCL sprain.
Both of the above stars have said all the right things about playing in D.C., but could you not see one or both requesting a trade if things go south? Or if they just wake up and decide they’d rather play for a contender.
Growing pains are real and Dybantsa won’t be in the Big 12 anymore.

Defense on the perimeter is kind of important in today’s NBA. This Wizards roster doesn’t exactly have a plethora of it. (Or hardly any at all.)

Wizards Final Prediction: Honestly had full intentions of going over, but sadly there’s just no room. Sorry, House! Under 34.5 wins.

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4. Charlotte Hornets — 37.5

A bold surprise went down in Charlotte this summer: the Hornets moved on from LaMelo Ball, trading their once believed franchise star for Naz Reid and future draft picks and swaps.

It’s a signal that the Hornets are very serious about taking things very serious.

What’s the Case for the Over?

The Hornets now have a lot more balance on this roster that was previously guard-heavy and the guards are still really good.

Not to mention that no more LaMelo means less turnovers and ill-advised shots and one less subpar defender on the court.

You would be hard pressed to find a better rookie sharp-shooting season than Kon Knueppel just had. Because you literally fucking can’t. Knueppel drained 273 threes, the most by a rookie in NBA history (shattering Keegan Murray’s previous record of 206). That was also the most in the entire NBA last year. Honestly, that’s not being talked about enough!
The keys are truly in Kon and Brandon Miller’s hands now. Miller is fresh off his best season in the league in which his efficiency increased and his intensity remained.
Coby White’s crunch-time take over in the play-in game vs. the Heat was electric. People forget he was the Bulls No. 1 scoring option last season before Chicago traded him at the deadline.

People also forget that after Thanksgiving, the Hornets record of 40-24 the rest of the season was the same as playoff teams like the Cavs, Rockets and Lakers.

Post-Turkey Day, the Hornets had the No. 3 offense in and were No. 5 in net rating in the entire NBA.

What’s the Case for the Under?

It must be said: history tells us that previous Young Surprise Teams are rarely able to repeat their magic and usually go Under the next season.

LaMelo’s departure means his high-octane shot creation and engine to the offense will be missed. Over the last three seasons, the Hornets record with LaMelo: 64-77. And without LaMelo? 20-85… Gulp.
A sophomore slump for Kon would be detrimental. And can he really sustain being the greatest shooter in NBA history? Because that’s literally the pace he’s on. He’s also injured out of the gate…
There is a lack of experience here in the frontcourt, putting a lot of trust in rookie Hannes Steinbach from Washington. He looked good in the preseason, but how much are the Hornets going to rely on a rookie at center again? (Ryan Kalkbrenner started 31 games last season and the Hornets record in those games was 12-19 compared to 40-33 with Moussa Diabete. Moose!)

Prior to last season, the Hornets won 19, 21 and 27 games the previous three years.

This is the Hornets highest win total since the 2017-18 (42.5) when Kemba Walker was an All-Star and Dwight Howard averaged 16 and 11. (The Hornets went Under, winning 35 games that season.)

Hornets Final Prediction: Apologies to Eric Collins and Dell Curry, but for the first time in a long while… Under 37.5 wins. And we hope to be wrong!

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3. Atlanta Hawks — 43.5

This will be the Hawks first full season without Trae Young in nine years, since the 2017-18 season.

The keys to this team are fully in Jalen Johnson’s hands. How high can he fly?

What’s the Case for the Over?

Jalen Johnson has improved significantly every year and is fresh off a breakout season, earning his first All-Star selection and All-NBA Third Team.

Johnson racked up 13 triple-doubles last season, tied for 2nd-most in the NBA with Josh Giddey and behind only Jokic.

The most improved player in the NBA last year was Nickeil Alexander-Walker, who more than doubled his points per game from 9.4 to 20.8. NAW has shot nearly 40% from three each of the last three seasons and has only missed four games over that time.
With Lu Dort’s arrival to ATL this summer, joining Dyson Daniels (The Great Barrier Thief!), this team has some defensive firepower and flexibility. To get Dort, the Hawks only had to trade former No. 1 overall pick Zaccharie Risacher.
The reliable CJ McCollum has averaged 18+ points for 11 straight seasons.

The rookies Kingston Flemings and Henri Veesaar can fill in the gaps where needed.

Head coach Quin Snyder is known for maximizing his lineups.

What’s the Case for the Under?

Can McCollum repeat what he did here last year? He was an integral part to the team after being acquired at the deadline. McCollum’s minutes and overall shooting numbers have been trending downward.

Can NAW also repeat his Most Improved Player of the Year campaign? That was the first time he’s ever seen that kind of usage.
There is not much size down low. Rookie Henri Veesaar is the only 7-footer on this roster. Teams with a big interior presence might have it Mike’s Way vs. Atlanta who was bottom-10 in opponent points in the paint last year.
There’s not a tremendous amount of reliable 3-point shooting. Lineups with Daniels and Dort will be challenged to make open shots with a clogged lane.

The Hawks had more success without Trae Young (and that’s precisely why they traded him), but he was a consistent central part to the team’s success for many years.

Hawks Final Prediction: This feels like a slight Under in a loaded East. Under 43.5 games.

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2. Orlando Magic — 43.5

Going into last season, the Magic had their highest win total line 15 years (!!) set at 50.5 wins. They underwhelmed and went Under but still ended up winning 45 games, a 4-win improvement from the season prior.

Expectations are everything.

What’s the Case for the Over?

There is a strong amount of continuity and togetherness here amongst the core of the team.

Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs, Wendell Carter Jr. and Jonathan Isaac have played four seasons together now.

Paolo took a step back last year but there were still plenty of positives. He still scored 30+ points 14 times and he played 72 games, a big jump from the 46 the season prior.
The Magic have been plagued with injuries for some time now and unsurprisingly: they always play better when they have their guys healthy. The Magic only had 27 games with both Franz Wagner and Suggs last season and went 17-10.
Bane’s arrival to Orlando last season did help this offense considerably. He was an Iron Man playing all 82 games and his shooting, spacing and playmaking helped the Magic obtain their highest offensive rating since the 1994-95 season when they went to The Finals with Shaq and Penny.

Can new head coach Sean Sweeney find and unlock Jeff Sunday’s magic Triple C formula: camaraderie, chemistry, cohesiveness?

Sweeney was a lead assistant on the Mavs Finals runner-up team in 2023-24 and also with the Spurs last season.

What’s the Case for the Under?

The depth here is not overwhelming.

That’s the price you pay when you’re top four players each make over $30 million.
Will Franz shooting ever level out and be consistent? He was better last season but still rocky.
Can Paolo and Franz coexist and stay on the court together? This could be an imperative and final year for the duo to prove they can work before the Magic decide to move on (from Franz).

Jamahl Mosley might not have been the best X’s and O’s coach (especially in the playoffs), but he always had this group on the same page and playing together.

Magic Final Prediction: Wanted to go Over, but we just cant. Under 43.5 wins.

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1. Miami Heat — 45.5

Giannis has arrived in South Beach.

Pat Riley once again landed a white whale and reloaded a superstar talent.

What’s the Case for the Over?

Giannis and Bam is a frontcourt to be reckoned with.

Giannis’ otherworldly talent foiled away in Milwaukee the last several years but Miami has to be the antithesis of Milwaukee in almost every way.

Davion Mitchell is the emblem of Heat Culture, which is still a very real thing. A mindset. A lifestyle. An innate propensity to be rigorous in your pursuit of the game. (Speaking of intensity: Bobby Portis and his crazy eyes joined Giannis on the trip down South.)
Klay is here and despite the Celtics Shaq memes hitting the timeline, Klay just has to do what he does best: shoot the rock. Yes, last season was the worst of his career, but he still shot 38.3 percent from 3 on high volume.
The Heat brought in additional shooting as well by way of Tim Hardaway Jr., getting to play were his Pops excelled under The Godfather himself, former Heat head coach Pat Riley.

Did… did you see Ryan Conwell in the preseason. Holy smokes.

Eric Spoelstra is still one of the best head coaches in the biz. Expect Spo to fully maximize the potential of having Giannis and Bam paired together.

What’s the Case for the Under?

The depth is in question and if Giannis is to miss any time… That goes for any superstar but even more so here.

New pieces can take some time to gel. Spo has been known to tinker with how to maximize his offenses.
A lot will be asked of some of the lesser known players that fill out this roster: Dru Smith, Pelle Larson and Nikola Jovic. Can Jovic put it together and find his shot again?
Not sure if you’ve heard, but the East is kinda stacked this season, a gauntlet of teams vying for the yoffs and top spot.

Given the current Over/Under trend where the Heat alternate going Over and then Under for the last eight years would put this year as an Under.

Heat Final Prediction: This is the year the Heat buck the trend. (Pen intended.) Over 45.5 wins.

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OPENING NIGHT is TUESDAY.

Season Preview Division by Division

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