2024-25 NBA SZN Preview: Pacific Division

The 2024-25 NBA season is upon us!

It’s time for our annual tradition of previewing the season, division by division, by asking two very important questions for each team:

• What’s the case for the Over?

• What’s the case for the Under?

LET’S GET IT.

5. Los Angeles Clippers — 35.5 wins

Paul George left for Philly and Kawhi is already out indefinitely. By gawd, that’s James Harden’s music.

What’s the Case for the Over?

There is absolutely no incentive to tank. In fact, the opposite is true here.

• Kawhi, although currently dealing with his usual unavailable to play issues, is still one of the best two-way players in the league when he’s on the court.

• Harden is still very capable of being THE system as he likes to put it. He’s going to have all the room to cook.

• Norm Powell can get some more run. A perennial Sixth Man of the Year candidate, Powell can start, put up some more shot attempts and score 20+ points a game.

• Remember Terance Mann’s 39-point game in the playoffs vs. the Jazz? (How the hell was that 3.5 years ago!?)

• Mo Bamba in LA! 35-year-old Nic Batum is BACK. So is 39-year-old P.J. Tucker! (Wait, P.J. Tucker wasn’t a Clipper before last season? Coulda fooled us.) The Clips have also taken fliers on some of the problematic sons of the NBA: KPJ, Josh Primo and Kai Jones.

For as bland of a season as they had last year, the Clippers still somehow managed to find a way to ironically go Over.

What’s the Case for the Clippers Under?

This number has already dropped considerably.

• Kawhi starting the season down and out is not great, Bob!

• Harden-ball in the Year 2024-25 of our basketball gods. Sweet jebus.

• What knockdown 3-point shooting does this team have?

• They want to be a more defensive-oriented team… but with Harden at the helm? There is a leadership structure here that feels lackluster.

The Clippers haven’t won fewer than 40 games since the 2010-11 season (!!).

Final Clippers Prediction: At least the new stadium is super cool! Under 35.5 wins.

4. Los Angeles Lakers — 43.5 wins

J.J. Redick, The Lake Show is in your hands.

What’s the Case for the Over?

When LeBron, AD and Rui played together last season, the Lakers went 34-19 — good for a 53-win pace.

• The King and The Brow looked great in the Olympics and they got that sweet taste of winning again. LeBron is an ageless wonder and AD still wreaks havoc on defense nightly. Both have been healthy! (Knocking on all the wood.)

• It was the litany of injuries to the role players that held the Lakers back last season. The lack of continuity and stability within the lineups. (And the lack of competence from Darvin Ham.)

• J.J. is already going with the correct starting lineup: D-Lo, Reaves, Rui, LeBron and AD. Reaves was an Iron Man last season and has room to grow with J.J. guiding him.

• Did you see Dalton Knecht light the preseason on fire in that Suns game!? He was draining 3s left and right and scored 20 straight points. He could be the real deal shooter that this team needs.

• What if Cam Reddish finally puts it together? We’ve been asking that for about 5 years now, but old habits die hard.

A deep cut: Christian Koloko thunderous blocks back in Toronto were a league pass treat we haven’t forgotten. And how awesome is the Quincy Olivari story!? There are some good vibes here.

What’s the Case for the Lakers Under?

LeBron and AD both played 71+ games last year and the Lakers only managed 47 wins.

• Getting that kind of repeat health for a guy turning 40 and a guy previously thought to be made of glass seems unlikely.

• Redick is a first-year head coach in the game’s biggest market under the media’s most scrutinized microscope.

• The Bronny Circus and hysteria simply ain’t helping things. It’s a cool story, but it probably is not adding up to any wins.

• The Lakers have gone Under in four straight seasons.

This number of 43.5 for the Lakers seems pretty low. Like Vegas bait.

Final Lakers Prediction: You know already know what it is. Over 43.5 wins.

3. Golden State Warriors — 43.5 wins

We always said that the Warriors dynasty couldn’t be declared dead so long as Steph, Klay and Draymond were repping the blue and gold. The time has officially come at long last.

What’s the Case for the Over?

It was time to move on and the both parties will be better for it.

• Steph, as he showed the entire planet in the Olympic Gold Medal Game, is very capable of still going Supernova Mode at any given moment.

• The Steph and Draymond 2-man game is still at it. With Steph and Dray last season, the Warriors had a 31-21 record — on a 49-win pace.

• Veterans have arrived! Kyle Anderson and De’Anthony Melton are the exact type of plug and play type of players the Dubs have needed for years now.

• Podz showed great promise as a rookie. Kuminga made strides last season. Moody flashed some promise. Even TJD was ballin for a bit.

• If you had to replace Klay’s 3-point shooting, then Buddy Hield, one of the best high-volume shooters in the history of the game, would be the one to do it.

The Warriors could be more whole this season from a health standpoint. Wiggins and GP2 (and Draymond but for a different kind of health) missed a lot of games last season.

What’s the Case for the Warriors Under?

It’s going to be weird and wacky without Klay.

• If Steph misses time, there is not much room for error here. He also did have a slight dip last season and other than the last two Olympics games, he struggled.

• The Warriors are also always at a severe disadvantage anytime Draymond misses games for whatever the reason might be. His gasket has not gotten any better as he’s gotten older.

• The depth toward the end of the bench on this team seems to be lacking compared to a lot of other teams.

• Everyone appears to have turned on Steve Kerr. When there is a riff with the coach, things can get rocky real quick.

This team straight up missed the playoffs season. That seems worth mentioning.

Final Warriors Prediction: We like the vets they added too much. Over 44.5 wins.

2. Sacramento Kings — 46.5 wins

DeRozan’s next stop is the Sac to light the beam.

What’s the Case for the Over?

The Kings won 46 games last year and replaced Harrison Barnes with DeMar DeRozan.

• Sacramento now has the two marquee clutch players in the game in Fox and DeRozan. A lot of pressure was riding on Fox late in games last year and DeRozan will alleviate that.

• DeRozan has also played on enough teams with different styles to be able to mesh here right away. A true professional. The master of the midrange!

• Sabonis has another offensive weapon to utilize on offense.

• Keegan Murray and Malik Monk heat checks! YES PLEASE.

• We always appreciated Jordan McLaughlin’s underrated efforts in Minny. He’s a solid guy to have coming off the bench.

Somehow, over the last 19 games of last season, the Kings were 3rd in defense. If they can build on that.

What’s the Case for the Kings Under?

Defensively… Eh! We still don’t fully buy it.

• It’s fair to be concerned about the defense, especially stopping bigger teams from having their way with them.

• The backup big situation is rather dire. Forgive us but we’ve never been moved by Alex Len.

• The Kings are without rookie Devin Carter for several more months after summer surgery to repair a torn labrum.

• There are some WHO HE!? characters here… Colby Jones, Orlando Robinson, Terry Taylor, Brodric Thomas…. If we don’t know, that’s saying something.

The Kings record last season against teams .500 and above: 25-31.

Final Kings prediction: Feels like we have too many Overs — puck it we ball. Over 46.5 wins.

1. Phoenix Suns — 47.5 wins

Last we saw them, they were getting embarrassed by the T-Wolves in the playoffs.

What’s the Case for the Over?

The roster improved around the edges and KD and Book grew together at the Olympics.

• Book was the unsung hero in France and he was learning from the best in the game every day. The chemistry with KD will be at an all-time high.

• Bradley Beal.. If he cares at all, he has got to feel like he has everything to prove. Because he does.

• Tyus Jones is exactly what this team needed. A point guard to set the table when the table needs setting.

• Other no-nonsense vets include: Monte Morris, Royce O’Neale and Mason Plumlee. And did you see Ryan Dunn in the preseason!?

• Coach Bud is a fantastic regular season coach. Say what you will about the playoffs as we all have, but the regular season is a different story.

The Suns were the worst 4th quarter team in the NBA last season and they still won 49 games.

What’s the Case for the Suns Under?

The Suns will have the long game in mind, wanting to prioritize being ready for the playoffs.

• If it starts out badly… who knows with KD’s history…

• It honestly doesn’t seem like Bradley Beal cares at all.

• Nurkic shooting 3s doesn’t seem like the best idea. Nurkic at all is our least favorite part of this team.

• Defensively, there are still plenty of questions to be had.

KD’s bill of health hasn’t exactly been clean and the same goes for Booker and Beal. Seems kind of important.

Final Suns Prediction: Another one where everyone is on it. What could go wrong? Over 47.5 wins.

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OPENING NIGHT is TUESDAY.

Season Preview Division by Division

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2024-25 NBA SZN Preview: Atlantic Division

The 2024-25 NBA season is upon us!

It’s time for our annual tradition of previewing the season, division by division, by asking two very important questions for each team:

• What’s the case for the Over?

• What’s the case for the Under?

LET’S GET IT.

5. Brooklyn Nets — 19.5 wins

The Nets are in a familiar spot: picking up the pieces of the franchise.

What’s the Case for the Over?

It’s a really low number!

• CAM THOMAS UNLEASHED. How many shot attempts can we get Cam Thomas up to this season? Infinity? Cam Johnson is still here, too, and he was ballin’ in the preseason.

• Nic Claxton is a solid player. The Nets think so, paying him to the tune of a 4-year, $100 million extension. They had to pay somebody.

• What if Olympic Germany Dennis Schroder takes over Brooklyn?

• What if Ben Simmons turns back into All-NBA Ben Simmons!?

• WHAT IF KILLIAN HAYES IS WHO KOC THOUGHT HE WAS!?! (Update: HE GONE.)

It’s worth mentioning that the Nets do have the Summer League MVP, Jalen Wilson.

And sometimes the craziest bets are the ones that hit.

What’s the Case for the Nets Under?

There’s tanking and then there’s what the Brooklyn Nets are doing this season.

• The next phase of the long black road of a rebuilding process (!!) begins now, trying to give themselves the best chance at landing a franchise-altering player in a loaded draft.

• In case you somehow didn’t hear about the Nets preseason Free Throw Golf Challenge, Ben Simmons still can’t shoot free throws.

• Bojan Bogdanovic is already hurt. Bojan has averaged 20 points per game a few times in his career, but a foot injury has him without a timetable for return. When he returns, he’ll probably get traded at some point.

• The Nets will have to play the Celtics, Knicks and Sixers in their division. What’s the Over/Under on the number of wins the Nets pull off against that Atlantic Big 3… 0.5?

History loves to repeat itself and the last time that the Nets completely bottomed out in 2008-09, they won 12 games.

Final Nets Prediction: No hesitation. Under 19.5 wins.

4. Toronto Raptors — 29.5 wins

It’s the first full season of the Raptors brand new look.

What’s the Case for the Over?

The new-look Raptors had some spice to them after acquiring Barrett and Quickley last season.

• Scottie Barnes is the alpha here and had a 1st quarter in the preseason against the Celtics where he started the game 4-of-5 from 3. Preseason is certainly not everything. But that was encouraging to see.

• So was RJ Barrett looking right at home in his return to the homeland last season, playing his best ball yet in a Raptors uniform.

• It was in limited minutes, but the 4-man lineup of Barnes-Barrett-Quickley-Poeltl had a damn good net rating last season. That’s going to be the 4-man lineup they run with the most.

• Gradey Dick was firing 3s in the preseason, starting that same Celtics game when Barnes looked so good by one upping him, draining 6-of-6 from the field to start the game. Dick made three 3s in another preseason game, too. Let it fly, Dick!

• Davion Mitchell was a player in Sac that we always had high hopes for with his defensive prowess. If Davion can consistently make his 3s, Darko will have to play him.

Kelly Olynyk is back in the 6. Do you believe in the hometown kids!?

What’s the Case for the Raptors Under?

The defense and 3-point shooting.

• Also, the Raptors ended last season with a record of 2-19… WOOF.

• For as good as Scottie Barnes has looked so far in his career, he was previously surrounded by experienced vets prone to winning. Now it’s mostly a bunch of young guys still on the come up.

• Barrett and Quickley give off some empty stats vibes. They can put up good numbers, big numbers -- but does it lead to sustainable winning basketball as your No. 2 and No. 3 scoring options? Eh. Barrett got injured in preseason as well and he still isn’t cleared for contact.

• There were some comments made in the preseason by Poeltl suggesting that the Raptors don’t want to win…

That sounds like writing on the wall.

Final Raptors Prediction: Liked what we saw in the preseason but aren’t letting that sway us. Under 29.5 wins.

3. Philadelphia 76ers — 50.5 wins

No back-to-backs for Embiid and PG already dealing with a knee. Oh, Philly.

What’s the Case for the Over?

The Sixers added Paul George to a team that won 47 games last year.

• Embiid has said he will probably never play another back-to-back in his career again, yes, but what if… that’s a great thing! And he stays healthy all season and plays X-number of games and has another wrecking ball MVP number season. Yeah!

• PG in Philly is the headline, of course. But the result of that of which people are sleeping on: Maxey as the No. 3 scoring option. Look out.

• Caleb Martin is the exact type of player the Sixers needed. Another high-energy player with grit a la Kelly Oubre who had a sneaky good season last year, primarily when Embiid missed time.

• There’s depth up and down this roster. Did you see Yabusele in the Olympics!?

We know Daryl is never done tinkering and upgrading around the edges.

What’s the Case for the 76ers Under?

The health of Embiid.

And PG, who again is already dealing with a bone bruise to his knee that looked scary in the preseason.

• The Sixers probably want to take the regular season with a grain of salt if it means being healthy and whole come playoff time in May.

• There are some players here Philly might miss: Melton was a key perimeter defender.

• 1st round draft pick Jared McCain had a scary fall in the preseason.

• This isn’t the youngest roster by any means. In fact, it’s one of the oldest.

It could take some time for the new pieces to gel.

Final Sixers Prediction: All signs to the Sixers taking the regular season lightly. Under 50.5 wins.

2. New York Knicks — 53.5 wins

Pushing their chips into the middle of the table, the Knicks are going for it.

What’s the Case for the Over?

The Knicks add KAT and Mikal Bridges to a team that won 50 games last season.

• Jalen Brunson will have his most room to work with optimal spacing with the addition of KAT, who can stretch the floor and knock down 3s. Open lanes to the rim for Brunson is most ideal.

• Towns is simply a better fit for this team than Randle. And joining a team that wasn’t his for so many years could be the perfect situation for KAT to just play ball.

• A defense with Anunoby and Mikal will be lethal on the perimeter. They have an answer for those big wings in Boston.

• MSG is going to be on fire for this team, we can already hear how bonkers it will be.

Thibs’ style is always to eek out every regular season win no matter the cost.

What’s the Case for the Knicks Under?

The Knicks can be a really good team and still not hit this high number.

• KAT doesn’t exactly have the best injury history and Mitchell Robinson is already out for months, the reason why they brought KAT in with the departure of Hartenstein.

• DiVincenzo was huge for the Knicks last season, making all those 3s. The 3-point shooting as a whole here is a little suspect.

• The Knicks are built for the Celtics in the playoffs, but there are a lot of other teams in the league.

• Perhaps with how injured the Knicks were by the 2nd round, Thibs will learn and actually not play his starters so many minutes in the regular season for once, keeping the long game in mind.

The ghost of the Nova Knicks could haunt this team.

Final Knicks Prediction: This number feels a tad too high with the NY tax. Under 53.5 wins.

1. Boston Celtics — 58.5 wins

Is this the first ever Revenge Tour Defending Champs?

What’s the Case for the Over?

The Celtics won 64 games last year and have the same formula in place.

• They still have a chip on their shoulder, too. Tatum got benched in the Olympics and Jaylen Brown didn’t even make the team. Fuel to the fire.

• Tatum’s outside shot has looked on point in the preseason. More like it did back in Game 6 in Milwaukee. (If you know, you know.)

• The C’s are built to withstand injuries. More than suitable backup players who can seamlessly fill roles. They were 21-4 without Porzingis last season.

• This is the most consistent team that beats you with a barrage of 3s and stellar defense from all angles. Modern day ball at its finest.

Not gonna lie, Joe Mazzulla has really grown us. Whether it’s him flying out to France to personally check on Tatum this summer, his World tour shirt, or his crazy practice dills — he’s made a believer out of this here blog.

What’s the Case for the Celtics Under?

Porzingis is already injured and being unsure of his return date is a little unsettling.

• So is the fact that the team is for sale… spooky vibes.

• Championship hangovers are real — even if you’re framing it differently.

• They will have a target on their backs as all defending champions do.

• The C’s are over in three straight and kinda feel due for an Under as the top of the East improved.

Here’s one for ya: Teams that won 60+ games are 10-4 to the Under the following season, including the last 7 straight…

Final Celtics Prediction: Better late than never. Over 58.5 wins.

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OPENING NIGHT is TUESDAY.

Season Preview Division by Division

We love this game!

2024-25 NBA SZN Preview: Central Division

The 2024-25 NBA season is upon us!

It’s time for our annual tradition of previewing the season, division by division, by asking two very important questions for each team:

• What’s the case for the Over?

• What’s the case for the Under?

LET’S GET IT.

5. Detroit Pistons — 25.5 wins

Losing has been all too prominent in Mo Town since Blake Griffin’s All-NBA season in 2018-19, but a new coach and new vets look to flip the script.

What’s the Case for the Over?

Monty Williams and his “just here to collect my fat paycheck and go home” vibes are gone and J.B. Bickerstaff and his player development and rebuilding experience are in.

• Cade Cunningham is the 23-year-old $224 million leader of the Pistons entering Year 4. He’s increased his scoring and assists every year in the league. The time is now for Cade to prove he’s a franchise player.

• Cade will have capable veteran scorers to dish the rock to in Tobias Harris and Tim Hardaway Jr. Say what you will about Tobias (we sure have on this here blog), but he’s the type of no-nonsense vet necessary for progress in Detroit.

• Jalen Duren was a double-double machine last season, averaging 13 and 11 — racking up 44 double-doubles. Cade and Duren are the young inside-outside duo the future here is built on.

• Malik Beasley’s 3-point shooting is also here joining the sharp-shooting Simone Fontecchio. The Pistons were bottom 5 in 3-point shooting last season and need the spacing and shot-making.

• If and when he’s able to return, Ausar Thompson was a rebounding and PRA menace at the beginning of last season. In the first 14 games of the season, Ausar had at least 7 rebounds in every game (!!) and eight double-digit rebounding games. There is also a lot of buzz surrounding rookie Ron Holland.

At this point, doesn’t it seem like the Pistons are due for an Over? They’ve gone Under in five straight, averaging 19 wins per season over that span.

What’s the Case for the Pistons Under?

The Pistons have gone Under in five straight, averaging 19 wins per season over that span.

They haven’t won more than 23 games since 2018-19. Shoutout Pistons Blake Griffin once more.

• And THIS is the season with the prized top draft pick of which Detroit has been shafted for the last few years.

• The Pistons have had a bottom-5 offense five years in a row. FIVE. Will this season be any different? Lotta good teams out there.

• With Ausar and Duren not having a perimeter shot, spacing in those lineups is severely limited from the jump. Speaking of Ausar, he hasn’t played yet since his blood-clot issue. Not good. At all.

• Could there be too many veteran players which will hinder the development of the youngin’s and cause a fire sale and extreme tanking situation at the deadline? Doesn’t seem like a crazy notion.

If they got Cooper Flagg would all those catastrophic losing seasons be worth it?

Final Pistons Prediction: It’s a bit unsettling how many people are on this, but so are we. Over 25.5 wins.

4. Chicago Bulls — 28.5 wins

DeRozan has left the building, but LaVine is still here (for now) and Lonzo is playing basketball again!?

What’s the Case for the Over?

• LaVine is going to be out to prove his worth in the trade market. He was lighting preseason up.

• Coby White leveled up last season in a big way. White and LaVine can seriously get buckets.

• We’ll never forget how good the Bulls looked at the beginning of the 2021-22 season with Lonzo running the show. Just having a ball mover like him will be great for this offense which has been prone to stagnation. It’s great to see him on the court!

• Speaking of moving the ball and facilitating, that’s Josh Giddey’s game.

• Vooch is still a player that’s going to give you his all until the final whistle.

• It’s easy to forget that Patrick Williams is just 23 years old. Progression and development in this league is not always linear.

Some other castaways here that we have always liked. THT and Jalen Smith got some dawg in them.

There’s been some positive hype about rookie Matas Buzelis! A hometown kid born in Chicago. That one could be written in the stars.

What’s the Case for the Bulls Under?

The Bulls upcoming 1st-round pick is top-10 protected, so they are heavily incentivized to not win many games this season.

• That actually hasn’t stopped them before, but perhaps they have learned from previous mistakes.

• The ceiling defensively for this team is low. Outside of Pat Willy, is there a plus-defender on this roster?

• This team is super guard heavy and doesn’t have any true 7-footers.

• Being stuck on the treadmill of mediocrity is the worst place to be in today’s NBA. This team seems more lost than ever for its true identity and direction.

Really all the evidence you need to see is that one preseason TikTok that the Bulls made.

Final Bulls prediction: The incentive to tank is too drastic to resist. Under 28.5 wins.

3. Indiana Pacers — 46.5 wins

A surprising run all the way to Eastern Conference Finals, the Pacers are out to show that last season was no fluke.

What’s the Case for the Over?

The Pacers return all of the key players that led them to an excellent 47-win season.

• With Haliburton running the show, this offense is going to be lights out. Again. It’s the crisp ball movement and spacing, vivacious energy and stout 3-point shooting. Unselfish with a bevy of assists.

• A full season of Pascal Siakam. That’s going to help them defensively and lighten Haliburton’s load on offense.

• People forget that the Pacers didn’t even have Mathurin for the playoff run. Mathurin adds another element of fire to the electricity within.

• Myles Turner has carved out a decade in Indiana despite all of those times he was forever on the trading block. Speaking of blocks, he’s a block artist and can space the floor.

• Andrew Nembhard blossomed in the playoffs as the Pacers dealt with injuries. Other players who have recently shown up that way? Fred VanVleet and Jalen Brunson.

Aaron Nesmith is vastly underrated and call us crazy, but we like the big-man fit of James Wiseman here.

What’s the Case for the Pacers Under?

Can lightning strike once again in Indiana? The Pacers always seem to always be outperforming preseason expectations.

• Defense is the fulcrum here. The Pacers were No. 24 in defensive rating last season and gave up 132+ points 11 times. Their record in those 11 games? 1-10.

• Is there now a blueprint on how to beat the Pacers after the playoffs? Eliminate their transition buckets and life is very difficult for them.

• Do they have the level of top-end talent that the Celtics, Knicks, 76ers and Cavs have? The answer is no.

• Can Obi Toppin shoot 40 percent from 3 again? Thought of as just a power dunker, people probably don’t even realize that Toppin shot out of his mind, a career 32 percent shooter from 3 before last year.

Their style of play with all the running and gunning and running and gunning. It can be exhausting for a full 82-game season.

Pacers Final Prediction: We think they can win the same number of games as last year with a full season of Siakam. Over 46.5 wins.

2. Cleveland Cavaliers — 48.5 wins

Kenny Atkinson waited for the perfect head coaching opportunity to open up — this was the one.

What’s the Case for the Over?

The Cavs have a strong defensive backbone and a new head coach who we believe in.

• Donovan Mitchell is capable of being the best player on the court any given night, a star that can score with the best of them. D. Mitch had 21 games last year with 30+ points and the Cavs went 16-5 in those games.

• The defense is in very good hands with the Block Brothers, Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley,

• Darius Garland missed 25 games due to injury, but a lot of them were fluke injuries. Kenny can stagger Garland-Mitchell and Allen-Mobley to always have a scorer/facilitator paired with a rim protecting big man.

• Caris LeVert made huge strides last season as a playmaker. Don’t forget that LeVert and Allen were with Kenny in Brooklyn on that fun Nets team all those years ago.

• Max Strus had a very subpar shooting season for himself in his first year in Cleveland last year. If Strus can get back to his old shooting numbers when he returns, the Cavs can unlock additional offense and spacing. The same goes (and even more so) if Mobley starts taking and making more 3s.

Cleveland features a plethora of continuity in a league where roster turnover is so prevalent.

If you believe in chemistry and vibes, then you should believe in the 2024-25 Cavs.

What’s the Case for the Cavs Under?

The roster does still have the issue of redundancy that it’s faced since the Donovan Mitchell trade.

• Two undersized guards and two bigs who don’t have a track record of an outside shot. (Yet.) Lineup flexibility has become paramount in today’s NBA and the Cavs don’t quite have the options available that some teams do, especially at the end of games.

• Offensive spacing as a result is something to keep an eye on here again as well. And the depth on paper doesn’t look as robust as a lot of teams. Max Strus is now out 6 weeks after an ankle injury in a recent practice.

• Garland has been trending down ever since the 2021-22 season when he transformed into an All-Star seemingly out of nowhere. The fluke injuries have hindered him, but after so many fluke injuries, you start to wonder.

• Speaking of Garland, his shooting numbers at the rim, along with Strus and LeVert, have not been good. Easy baskets are a breath of fresh air and those three are gasping.

Iso-centric systems are much easier to defend in the playoffs and we can’t help but wonder if other teams saw the blueprint on how to beat the Cavs in close games down the stretch.

Final Cavs Prediction: The playoffs might be a different story (again), but we believe in the regular season Cavs. Over 48.5 wins.

1. Milwaukee Bucks — 50.5 wins

Since winning the Finals in 2020-21, the Bucks haven’t found their way.

What’s the Case for the Over?

His name is Giannis Antetokounmpo.

• Giannis puts up insane MVP-level numbers year in and year out. So long as he steps onto the court, the Bucks have a solid chance to win.

• The chance is even greater when paired with Dame DOLLA, one of the best offensive weapons in the modern era. Reports have reported that Dame wasn’t 100% last season due to conditioning and the move to Milwaukee took a toll. Perhaps he just needed to settle in.

• The People’s Champ, Bobby Portis is the type of player to give everything he has every single night. To bring the fire and intensity and fire everyone up.

• The Bucks added some nice pieces in the offseason by way of Gary Trent Jr., Taurean Prince and Delon Wright. Veteran role players. Professionals at their craft.

Doc, for all his faults and blown leads in the playoffs, has historically been a good regular season coach.

It will also be nice to not have to deal with any coaching bullshit early in the season.

What’s the Case for the Bucks Under?

Put it mildly: this team is old as shit.

• If Giannis misses time, downgrade the Bucks chances to win significantly.

• Speaking of healthy, Khris Middleton is coming off of not one but TWO ankle surgeries!? That… doesn’t sound great, Bob.

• Defensively, they have Giannis, yes. But any point of attack defense with Dame is going to be at a disadvantage. Brook Lopez is 36!

• Has the Eastern Conference passed the Bucks by? The Celtics are the reigning champs, the Knicks have added a ton of talent, the Sixers added Paul George and the Pacers, Cavs and Magic are all bright, young up and coming teams.

If it starts poorly… will Doc be on the hot seat and the coaching merry go round keeps on spinning?

Final Bucks Prediction: It’s a young man’s game. Under 50.5 wins.

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We. Are. Back!

OPENING NIGHT is TUESDAY.

Season Preview Division by Division

We love this game!

2024-25 NBA SZN Preview: Southwest Division

The 2024-25 NBA season is upon us!

It’s time for our annual tradition of previewing the season, division by division, by asking two very important questions for each team:

• What’s the case for the Over?

• What’s the case for the Under?

LET’S GET IT.

5. San Antonio Spurs — 35.5 wins

Year 2 Wemby not only has a point guard this time around, but he has The Point God to guide him and this offense.

What’s the Case for the Over?

Wemby could be ready to completely take over the league right NOW.

• Walking legends early in their career tend to excel to a level that lifts up everyone around them. Wemby, without a doubt, is a walking legend. One of the greats ready to rip through the fabric of the game.

• Chris Paul has a ton of point guard miles under his belt and now he’s paired with the greatest coach the game has seen and the greatest prospect the game has seen. There is a reason why CP decided to tie his legacy to Wemby and the Spurs for the twilight of his career.

• There is another guard here, too, the exciting rookie Stephon Castle from UConn.

• Another vet has also arrived in San An, Harrison Barnes, a consummate professional and big wing — the exact type of player the Spurs needed to level up.

• Let’s not be quick to forget the Spurs staples from the last few years: Sochan, Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell are all still here and their burden and responsibility is a lot lighter these days.

The Spurs record over the last 23 games of last season was 11-12, on pace for 39 wins already.

A 35.5 win total is MUCH higher than last year’s total wins of 22. Vegas seems to know…

What’s the case for the Spurs Under?

For a team that won 22 games each of the last two years, the number is crazy high.

• Pop experimented like hell last season and he could very well do the same this season. Pop is playing chess with the longest game for Wemby and this franchise in mind.

• Off that notion.. will the Spurs even want to win a lot of games? Imagine if they could pair Wemby with any of the top prospects in the upcoming draft. Gulp.

• Devin Vassell has a stress fracture in his right foot and isn’t expected to be back until early November. An ominous sign out of the gate.

• It could be noted for every Western Conference team, but the West is absolutely loaded. A gauntlet to the highest degree.

The 3-point shooting here is still a big question.

No. 28 in 3-point percentage last season, will they have enough shooting and spacing?

Final Spurs Prediction: Wemby + Pop + CP3 = Over 35.5 wins.

4. Houston Rockets — 43.5 wins

Looking to build on last season’s breakthrough, Ime Udoka has instilled a systematic change within this organization.

What’s the case for the Over?

The roster is stacked and Ime will have them prepared and hold them accountable.

• Alperen Sengun made a leap last year from Walmart Jokic to Target Jokic. Not only did his offensive numbers take a massive jump, but his defense was much better.

• Jalen Green played out of his mind at the end of last season when Sengun was out. The key will be getting JG4 to play like that alongside Sengun. When Green scored 34+ points, the Rockets went 9-1.

• The No. 3 overall pick, Reed Sheppard, looks like a MF stud. He could be the deadeye 3-point shooter the Rockets need to contend with the best in the West.

• The other young potential here is still oozing with talent: Jabari Smith Jr., Cam Whitmore, Amen Thompson, Tari Eason. Yeah, this roster is STACKED.

• The vet vets are here too, man. Uncle Jeff Green and now even Steven Adams. We haven’t even mentioned $42 million Fred VanVleet who has a career 61% winning percentage.

The Rockets will be able to play many different styles and have a ton of lineup flexibility.

What’s the case for the Rockets Under?

Historically, it is difficult to repeat as a Young Surprise Team.

• The fact that Jalen Green could not thrive until Sengun was out of the lineup is concerning.

• Is this a case of there being TOO many guys? There is only so much playing time to go around. Only so many minutes to be had.

• Counting on a rookie as your main supplier of outside shooting is the case here and is not exactly recommended. Is Reed ready to stroke it in the big leagues from the jump?

• Dillon Brooks always seems to bring the best out of opponents with his style and approach to the game. Instigating the other team does not always yield the best results. Just ask the 2022-23 Grizzlies.

Final Rockets Prediction: Ready for liftoff! Over 43.5 wins.

3. New Orleans Pelicans — 45.5 wins

The Brandon Ingram situation looms, but Zion at the 5 on offense is ready to be unleashed.

What’s the case for the Over?

The Pelicans won 49 games last year and have quietly had a top-7 defense two years in a row. (Yes, that’s real — we triple checked.)

• Zion at the 5 running some point-center is a dream ready to come true once again, bulldozing downhill to the rim and bodying opponents into oblivion.

• If anything, Brandon Ingram will be motivated to prove everyone wrong and increase his trade value. Trading Ingram could bring in some talent that fits better with the current roster.

• Dejounte Murray’s arrival in the Big Easy gives the Pels a true starting point guard, moving McCollum to more off-ball and spot-up shooting duties where he’s comfortable.

• Trey Murphy is dealing with a preseason/camp hamstring strain, but when he returns, can we interest you in a flier for Trey Murphy Sixth Man of the Year? Well, he might get moved to the starting lineup because he’s that good.

• Jose Alvarado was injured for a large chunk of last season, but in the 56 games that he played, the Pelicans were 38-18. That’s a 56-win pace!! Grand Theft Alvarado’s energy and fight is contagious.

Willie Green’s speech from the play-in game a couple of years ago is one that we still think of any time Willie Green is mentioned.

What’s the case for the Pels Under?

Vibes are important. And the vibes with Brandon Ingram are not great.

• Shams has announced that the starting center for the Pelicans is… Herb Jones. We love Herb. (Not on Herb!) But teams with size and a real big man are going to pummel the Pels on the boards.

• Trey Murphy already being injured is very ominous. Hamstring strains can linger.

• The depth here is depleted, especially the defensive flexibility after losing Larry Nance and Dyson Daniels in the Dejounte trade. Naji Marshall is gone to Dallas as well.

• Hate to say it, but Dejounte in Atlanta was not the same player he was in San Antonio.

The thing about small ball is its outdated. There are too many 7-footers with handles and a 3-point shot.

It’s skill ball. It has and will always be skill ball.

Pelicans Final Prediction: We still love Zion but this center-less roster and vibes ain’t it. Under 45.5 wins.

2. Memphis Grizzlies — 47.5 wins

After a lost season in which they dealt with the most missed games due to injury in NBA history, the Grizz look to get back to their winning ways.

What’s the Case for the Over?

Ja, JJJ and Bane is the simple formula for success.

• Ja Morant is saying all the right things. Perhaps he is a changed man. What we do know is that when he’s healthy and on the court, he’s one of the games most electrifying players.

• Bane had an under the radar season last year, stepping up and doing everything he could with the new players that spawned in around him.

• JJJ and Marcus Smart are still the best frontcourt-backcourt defensive duo in the league.

• There is a lot of hype surrounding Zach Edey. Big men in the NBA who can make their free throws automatically have a better chance at making it. It helps to have Ja tossing you the rock, too.

• The return of Brandon Clarke from injury. And the return of Yuta Watanabe as well!

The Grizzlies path to winning 48 games relies on the strength of their defense.

What’s the case for the Grizz Under?

The biggest predictor of future injury is the history of previous injury and the list here is a lengthy one.

• Ja already had a an ankle injury scare in preseason. His style of play is wildly susceptible to injury.

• JJJ is already dealing with a hamstring strain… GG Jackson is out at least three months with a broken foot. Vince Williams is out a month with a tibia injury. The season hasn’t even started yet!

• Many like to point to the Grizz returning back to where they were two years ago when they won 51 games. But two years ago this team had Steven Adams, Tyus Jones and Dillon Brooks. Tyus Jones and Dillon Brooks were top-3 in minutes played for that team. Just saying.

• There is going to be a lot of pressure on rookie big man Zach Edey. And it wasn’t long ago at all that scouts weren’t sure if he would get drafted at all.

For as good as this team has been and is supposed to be defensively, they are pretty thin on the wing.

Final Grizzlies Prediction: This one almost feels too easy, which is scary. Under 47.5 games.

1. Dallas Mavericks — 49.5 wins

Fresh off a trip to the Finals, Dallas brings in Klay Thompson and will have a full season with the trade deadline additions that helped their postseason run.

What’s the Case for the Over?

Luka and Kyrie.

• LukaMagic — still as real as it gets and as spectacular as ever. A full season of throwing lobs to Gafford and Lively and now finding Klay for 3. The Mavs were 34-17 when Luka and Lively played together, that’s good for a 55-win pace.

• Kyrie has figured his shit out in Dallas. The Big D and next to Luka was the place for him all along.

• New scenery for Klay is just what he needed. A fresh start. Two of the all time great offensive facilitators dishing him the rock.

• P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford. Who would have thought that adding a Charlotte Hornet and Washington Wizard was the secret to a magical Finals run. But it’s all about the fit and PJW and Gafford fit like a glove.

• Don’t sleep on the subtle additions of Spencer Dinwiddie (again) and Naji Marshall. Dinwiddie can step in and run this offense when needed and Marshall brings an energy and intensity that doesn’t show up on paper.

Luka with Lively and Gafford…

Welcome to LOB CITY DALLAS.

What’s the case for the Mavs Under?

The Mavs are still top heavy.

• Not only did Luka have the deep run to the Finals with his crazy usage, but he also had the Olympics this summer.

• It’s still Kyrie. You just never know when some shit could go down with him.

• Defensively, there are still some concerns. Especially if Klay is washed washed…

• Markieff Morris is here… The Morris Twins are OG’s from Bab’s Shit List. Bad vibes there.

It’s pretty easy to forget that the Mavs missed the playoffs and play-in entirely just two years ago.

Mavs Final Prediction: This year, we aren’t betting against The Don. Over 47.5 wins.

____________________________________

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OPENING NIGHT is TUESDAY.

Season Preview Division by Division

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2024-25 NBA SZN Preview: Southeast Division

The 2024-25 NBA season is upon us!

It’s time for our annual tradition of previewing the season, division by division, by asking two very important questions for each team:

• What’s the case for the Over?

• What’s the case for the Under?

LET’S GET IT.

5. Washington Wizards — 19.5 wins

According to Basketball-Reference, the Wizards franchise originates back to 1961 and last year’s 15 wins were the fewest in all 64 seasons.

What’s the case for the Over?

Miracles happen every day.

And 19.5 is a low bar to clear.

• Jordan Poole can’t be as bad as he was for a large part of last season, right? It was not the imagined Poole Party in D.C., however, he did finish the year much stronger than he started.

• Kuzma is a certified baller. Even teams as lowly as the Washington Wiz-ards (shoutout Joe House!) can have a baller on the roster. Now if only Kuz hadn’t made that comment about the Pistons.

• Jonas Valanciunas is here. J-Val is a professional big man with 12 NBA seasons under his belt. Is he here just to be trade bait? Probably. (The same can be said for Malcom Brogdon, except for the big man part.)

• There are several young players to be excited about: Bilal Coulibaly showed promise as a 19-year-old rookie. Saddiq Bey scored 50 points in a game once. (No cap.) And Corey Kispert is a sniper from 3. It ain’t much, but it’s something.

• The No. 2 overall pick in the draft, it’s impossible for Alex Sarr to be any worse than he was in summer league… right?

Wizards fans think they are cursed and missing out on a top chance at Cooper Flagg would be more painful than winning less than 20 games again.

What’s the case for the Wiz Under?

They want to be one of the four worst teams in the league to have the best possible chance at Cooper Flagg — simple as that.

• The Wizards won 15 games last year and they LOST some of their best players: Deni Avdija, Tyus Jones, Daniel Gafford (who started in THE FINALS) and Delon Wright.

• Brogdon is already injured and expected to miss some time. Brogdon would bring stability and table setting to the offense, but that’s out the window for now.

• If you happened to watch a Wizards game last year, you’re aware that they were rightfully referenced as glorified pickup games at the Y. This should year should be much more of the same.

• Their top draft pick, Alex Sarr, had the worst summer league performance of all time. 9-of-47 shooting. WOOF.

This is what we call tanker’s delight.

Final Wizards prediction: The number is soo low… but it’s not low enough! Under 19.5 wins.

4. Charlotte Hornets — 30.5 wins

Steve Clifford is out (again) and new head coach Charles Lee looks to usher in a new era of Charlotte Hornets basketball.

What’s the Case for the Over?

A healthy LaMelo and Mark Williams would do wonders.

• LaMelo played only 22 games last season and just 36 games the season prior. In those 22 games last year, LaMelo scored more than 28 points in half of them (!!). He is a special talent — an All-Star the last time his ankles allowed him to stay on the court for a full season in 2021-22.

• Mark Williams one-upped LaMelo by only playing in 19 games last season. But in those 19 games, the Hornets went 7-12, their best 19-game stretch of the season. Williams tallied eight double-doubles and had five games of 15+ rebounds, an area where Charlotte struggled mightily without him, ranking dead last in the NBA.

• Brandon Miller shined in his rookie season, a lone bright spot in CLT last season. This here blog had clamored for drafting Scoot No. 2 overall, but we are proud to admit that we (so far) were very wrong. Miller is the real deal. A potential carbon copy of his idol, Paul George.

• The post trade deadline Hornets had immaculate vibes. When the hometown kids showed up, Seth Curry and Grant Williams - along with Thunder castaways Micic and Tre Mann - the Hornets rattled off a 4-game win streak and took 5 of 6 games. It was a breath of fresh air that of course had Eric Collins losing his freakin’ mind. Tre Mann looked fantastic in preseason!

• Hello Tidjane Salaun! The 6-9 frenchman looked super comfortable in preseason, stretching the floor, knocking down 3’s and turning to the crowd at MSG!? Count us IN.

The Hornets have had a bottom-3 offense two years in a row, but expect that to change drastically if LaMelo can stay healthy. (Charlotte was top-10 the first month of last season with LaMelo.)

Last note: vet’s vet Taj Gibson is here!

What’s the case for the Hornets Under?

The Hornets have had a bottom-3 offense two years in a row.

Teams that struggle to score the ball have a hard time winning games in today’s NBA, straight up.

• LaMelo’s ankles are worrisome. There have been too many “fluke” injuries now to think they are all just bad luck. LaMelo is the keys to unlocking this team.

• Mark Williams has also had a difficult time staying on the court, playing 62 total games in his first two years in the league. He’s even already dealing with a tendon strain in his foot…

• Nick Richards seems like a nice guy and has had some good games and moments, but rest assured he is not a starting center in the NBA. There is not much big-man depth here at all. We love Taj Gibson, but he’s damn near 40!

• Could there potentially be a franchise player struggle match between LaMelo and Brandon Miller? They have said all the right things so far, but it’s fair to wonder.

The backend depth on the roster is questionable. And how exactly are they going to stop teams defensively?

But the absolute worst: Ashley ShahAhmadi is no longer the sideline reporter extraordinaire in Buzz City.. le sigh.

Final Hornets Prediction: Sound the Young Surprise Team alarm! Over 30.5 wins.

3. Atlanta Hawks — 36.5 wins

The Dejounte Murray experiment is no more — this is once again Trae Young’s team and Trae Young’s team only.

What’s the case for the Over?

The Dejounte-Trae backcourt was never going to yield results better than mid.

Perhaps now this Hawks team can spread its wings.

• Trae is free to run this offense without the your-turn my-turn madness that drove us crazy with Dejounte. Ice Trae Bombs away? YES. We’ll never shut up about his supreme floor spacing and grasp on controlling the reigns of the game.

• Jalen Johnson is a power dunking highlight reel who can seriously hoop. Injuries have stunted his growth and thwarted the Hawks at times. The Hawks season went into free fall mode last year as soon as Johnson was down and out, missing his scoring and energy immensely.

• De’Andre Hunter feels like one of those underrated-overrated players that the consensus can never quite figure out. Probably because he was the No. 4 overall pick, but Hunter is solid defensively and in the midrange.

• No. 1 overall pick Zaccharie Risacher had some moments in the preseason! Risacher looked comfortable and liked he belonged out there. Has there ever been less pressure on a No. 1 pick?

• We know what Clint Capela is at this point, but there is still more to be seen from Onyeka Okongwu, now entering his fifth season. The addition of Larry Nance provides added big-man lineup flexibility and the same goes for fellow ex-Pelican Dyson Daniels from the guard position.

The Hawks kinda have a lot of long athletes who can shoot the rock. We haven’t even mentioned Bogdan Bodganovic heat checks!

Lastly and most importantly, without having their own 1st-round pick, there is no incentive to tank.

What’s the case for the Hawks Under?

Moving on from Dejounte was wholeheartedly necessary, and this team now has more balance, but this roster is lacking for top-end talent that a lot of other teams possess.

• If Trae misses any time… he played 54 games last season and the team went 14-14 without him but that was when Dejounte was here to run the show. That luxury is gone.

• De’Andre Hunter is averaging 53 games played a season in his five years in the NBA so far. He’s one of those players that just can’t consistently stay on the court, causing instability within lineups.

• This is the rare team without a true 7-footer listed. Teams with size are likely to give them trouble.

• The wins here have been trending in the wrong direction ever since the Hawks Ben Simmons run to the ECF. Last three seasons: 43 to 41 to 36 wins.

The Hawks were one of the worst teams against the spread of all-time last season.

The spread is different than a win, absolutely — but those are just horrendous vibes to have around.

Final Hawks Prediction: With tanking off the table, let the Hawks fly! Over 36.5 wins.

2. Miami Heat — 44.5 wins

The Jimmy Butler Miami Heat window appears to be closing, but in the past when we’ve counted them out…

What’s the Case for the Over?

His name is Eric Spoelstra.

Spo is one of the best coaches in the league and seems to somehow always find a way to make things work.

• Jimmy did show up to media day all business, no hijinks. Perhaps he will take the regular season seriously? He is playing for his next and potentially last big contract.

• Bam is probably more important to the Heat as the anchor of the defense. Bam shooting 3s, which started this summer with team USA at the Olympics, would be a boon for this offense has traditionally not had the best spacing.

• Jamie Jaquez was a rookie wise beyond his years last season. A jump in his second season would be typical Heat, re-loading from within. Juan Wick is such a great nickname, too.

• Tyler Herro is still in South Beach. An abundant scorer but sub-par defender who has been called out by the big boss Pat Riley, how will Herro respond?

• Jovic is worth keeping an eye on. Another potential breakout incoming. Duncan Robinsin quietly had a huge bounce back last season.

A full season of Terry Rozier. Scary Terry immersed in Heat Culture just feels so right.

What’s the case for the Heat Under?

If the Heat get off to a bad start, could Jimmy Butler ask for a trade in a contract year?

• Butler is on an expiring contract and everything with Jimmy involves a little bit of tension. That’s just the nature of the beast. His availability and injury concerns are always at play. Pat Riley did not like his comments in the playoffs and Jimmy did not like Riley’s comments on his comments.

• Offensively, it hasn’t exactly been smooth sailing here. We’re talking about rock-fight possessions occurring on the regular.

• Caleb Martin is gone and he did quite a lot for this team, especially in terms of lineup flexibility. The Heat’s run to the Finals two years ago doesn’t happen without Eastern Conference Caleb Martin.

• Spo has been threading a fine line with this team for years now, getting them to the Finals not once but twice. But the thing about thread is that it can only take so much.

Last year could be a sign.

They barely made the playoffs as the 8-seed in a down year for the league and the East.

Final Heat Prediction: Spo + highlty motivated Jimmy = Over 44.5 wins.

1. Orlando Magic — 47.5 wins

The Magic are fresh off being a Young Surprise Team, winning 47 games last year all the while playing that catchy song.

What’s the Case for the Over?

The Magic are running it back with the same team and with improvements around the edges.

• In just his second year in the league, Paolo Banchero was a force to be reckoned with. A 21-year-old All-Star, Paolo is the building block of the franchise, a beast that keeps getting stronger.

• KCP has arrived to the House of Mouse. 3 and D is exactly what the Magic needed and it’s exactly what they will get from KCP, who has mastered the art.

• Franz Wagner had a really rough go of it shooting from distance last year. He can still do everything else, but if and when his outside shooting returns, the Magic will have the necessary spacing to fully thrive.

• Wendell Carter Jr.’s base numbers dropped last season and he still can’t play more than 60 games, but he kept his efficiency and improved his 3-point shooting.

• Knock on wood right now, but Jonathan Isaac is… healthy at the start of the season!? Isaac remains one of those Velociraptor-like defenders. Paired with Jalen Suggs, the Magic can suffocate teams.

The Magic took care of business last year against below .500 teams and they have one of the best defenses in the league in the worst division.

It wouldn’t be an Orlando Magic SZN preview without mentioning the thriving chemistry here.

What’s the case for the Magic Under?

The offense can be quite clunky.

Orlando had the No. 22 offense last season.

• Paolo is asked to do a lot, especially offensively where it can be an exhausting style of play. He can’t really afford to take possessions off which adds up over the course of a long season.

• If Franz doesn’t find his 3-point shot, that throws a wrench into not only this team’s ceiling but what they are capable of achieving on offense on a night-to-night basis.

• No more Markelle Fultz? We get it. This team has a lot of guys already and there just wasn’t room. Even so, no Fultz gives us kinda weird vibes.

• Teams that are Young Surprise Teams have a tendency to not fair as well the next season… although OKC just blossomed back-to-back. That’s the rarity.

The number is pretty high.

The Magic won 47 games last season and teams will be more ready for them this go around.

Final Magic Prediction: Play the MF song. Over 47.5 wins.

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OPENING NIGHT is TUESDAY.

Season Preview Division by Division

We love this game!

2024-25 NBA SZN Preview: Northwest Division

The 2024-25 NBA season is upon us!

It’s time for our annual tradition of previewing the season, division by division, by asking two very important questions for each team:

• What’s the case for the Over?

• What’s the case for the Under?

LET’S GET IT.

5. Portland Trail Blazers — 21.5 wins

The Process of the Pacific Northwest, the Blazers are the one team of the Western Conference written in pen for tanking this season to “Gag for Flagg.”

What’s the case for the Over?

It’s just 22 wins.

The Blazers managed 21 last year despite being decimated by injuries all season long.

(Games Played last season: Ayton 55, Grant 54, Simons 46, Sharpe 32.)

• Scoot will be better — he made strides of improvement last season after a very slow start. A lighter burden and less turnovers would work wonders.

• Simons can catch fire and light up Moda Center at any given moment like his predecessor Dame. A 3-point sniper ready to let it fly.

• Jerami Grant is still here, getting buckets and collecting paychecks as the only 10-year vet on this roster.

• The highest paid Portland Trail Blazer? That would be the self-proclaimed DominAyton. Center is actually a crowded position: Time Lord and the 7-2 rookie from UConn, Donovan Clingan. Clingan kick outs to the perimeter in the preseason looked good.

• Shaedon Sharpe showed last season before he got hurt that he’s more than just a lethal power dunker. The advanced numbers don’t like him, but he’s a baller. It’s important to remember he’s just 21 years old and missed his one collegiate year.

• The Blazers actually traded for a big wing this offseason in Deni Avdija, who we really like. Avdija is an Iron Man that has improved every year in the league.

The bottom line for the Over is that if the young talent here can stay healthy, it’s just one more win.

What’s the case for the Blazers Under?

His name is Joe Cronin and his calling card is being completely unafraid to unabashedly tank his ass off time and time again.

• For three straight seasons, Cronin has put on a WHO HE!? masterclass at the end of the season.

• Finishing at the rim is a problem to keep an eye on as both Simons and Scoot really struggled last season. Turnovers for Scoot as well — he averaged a whopping 4.5 turnovers per game after the All-Star break, the most in the league. Not to mention a defense with the undersized backcourt of Scoot (6-2) and Simons (6-3).

• The only reason that Chauncey Billups is still the head coach here is because he’s so good at losing games.

• Portland is very susceptible to long losing streaks. Last season featured four losing streaks of longer than 7 games.

It’s difficult to imagine a world where Joe Cronin wants nothing more than his best possible shot at Cooper Flagg.

Final Blazers prediction: Had full intentions of going Under, but the number here is just too low. Over 21.5 wins.

4. Utah Jazz — 28.5 wins

Danny will surely want to tank, but the Jazz have make that a difficult task each of the last two seasons with long stretches of competent basketballin’.

What’s the case for the Over?

This Jazz squad plays as a TEAM.

A team connected by selfless players, producing high-assist numbers and good vibes.

• Lauri Markkanen, the NBA’s 2022-23 Most Improved Player, submitted plenty of evidence that his All-Star season was no fluke, earning him a $240 million extension this summer. That not only keeps him Utah, but means the Jazz will have an All-Star talent stepping on the court to lead them.

• Keyonte George shined in the latter half of his rookie season en route to a first-team All-Rookie selection. George had eight games of making at least five 3s, highlighed by drilling nine 3-pointers against the Warriors in mid-February. NINE. Patty Mills 14-year experience is now here to help guide the way.

• Even with Keyonte’s emergence, Collin Sexton’s numbers still increased across the board with a bigger role and more responsibility.

• John Collins is fresh off his best 3-point shooting and rebounding season since 2020-21 after seeing his numbers steadily decline in ATL. A new start in Utah treated him well.

• Utah has a defensive anchor in Walker Kessler, averaging over 2.3 blocks in each of his first two seasons in the league, No. 6 in total blocks a year ago.

There is a potential high-octane top-10 offense lurking here that head coach Will Hardy is capable of unlocking if Danny will let him.

What’s the case for the Jazz Under?

The boss and CEO of basketball operations, Danny Ainge, will prefer not to pile up wins, knowing a top shot at landing Cooper Flagg is best for the future of the franchise.

• The Western Conference is so loaded that the Jazz might be relegated to looking more like the end-of-the-season Jazz sooner than usual.

• Speaking of, over the last two seasons the Jazz have a combined post-trade deadline record of just 13-41. That’s Danny pulling the plug.

• It’s already safe to say that Will Hardy is a fine NBA coach, but Danny might encourage him to lean more on the youngin’s and focus all the way on player development from the jump.

• Giving the keys to the offense to a second year player in Keyonte already speaks to that. Keyonte is good, but where does he rank among the league’s starting point guards? (One piece from The Athletic ranked the Jazz’s point guard depth as dead last in the NBA.)

If you remove last year’s crazy hot streak from December to January where the Jazz won 6 in a row and 12 of 14 games — their season as a whole looks a lot less positive. Yes, that’s the case for all teams if you remove their best stretch, but even more so for this team.

Final Jazz Prediction: Danny is dreaming of Coop as you read this. Under 28.5 wins.

3. Denver Nuggets — 51.5 wins

The most stout 2-man game in the league still resides a mile high, but KCP is gone to Disney and Westbrook is here…

What’s the case for the Over?

It’s what the Nuggets do.

Jokic and Michael Malone have cashed the Over each of the last seven years save for the shortened Covid season of 2019-20. And they’ve been over this number two years in a row.

• A motivated Jokic after the Nuggets embarrassing meltdown in Game 7 vs. the T-Wolves is a scary thought. Both Jokic and Murray will want to make up for the Olympics, too. Murray got paid, so that component is settled.

• The harmonious 2-man game between the Joker and the Blue Arrow is something we’ll always rave about here. A special connection that speaks louder than any stats on paper.

• Aaron Gordon and MPJ are playing for their next contracts. Gordon has shot over 60 percent on 2s ever since he joined the Nuggets. MPJ has shot at least 40 percent from 3 every season in the league and played a by far career-high 81 games last season.

• Russell Westbrook is a polarizing choice. But we know Jokic makes everyone better. And perhaps Westbrook’s energy will invigorate and fire up Jamal? They will utilize Westbrook’s motor. And did… did Westbrook’s jumper look different and smoother in the preseason??

• The youngin’s here have all shown their potential. Christian Braun, Peyton Watson and Julian Strawther have a big opportunity ahead.

The arrival of Dario Saric brings some added flexibility to the reserve unit that was bottom-5 last year in points per game. Plenty of room to improve and grow there.

What’s the case for the Nuggets Under?

The Nuggets are fully aware that the true test doesn’t come until the playoffs.

The goal is getting to the postseason healthy and ready to roll.

• Jokic is racking up the basketball miles, coming off the Olympics and all the travel miles with the preseason trip to Abu Dhabi.

• Jamal Murray in the Olympics looked… broken. It was a continuation of what we saw at times last season.

• Russell Westbrook in the Year 2024 of our basketball gods!? Have they seen how unplayable he is at the end of games and especially in the playoffs!?

• It’s no secret that Michael Malone has generally been a head coach quite reluctant to play young guys a lot of minutes, but he’s really got no other options with this roster. Calvin Booth has forced Malone’s hand. (Booth was probably forced by the penny pinching Kroenke’s.)

The Nuggets were tied for the fewest wins by 10+ points last season. Not exactly the signs of a juggernaut.

Final Nuggets Prediction: Really hate to bet against Jokic, but 48-50 wins feels like the outcome. Under 51.5 wins.

2. Minnesota Timberwolves — 52.5 wins

KAT was once a lone wolf howling into the Minnesota night, but the T-Wolves have officially moved on from him (and his substantial contract).

What’s the case for the Over?

His name is Anthony Edwards.

And strong defensive teams fare very well to the Over.

• Ant-Man has been declared NEXT for a little while now — but last season, especially in the playoffs, Ant elevated to that special level reserved for walking legends. The KAT trade makes it clear: this franchise belongs solely to Anthony Edwards. How high will Ant fly this season?

• The KAT trade also brings in a dog. Say what you will about Julius Randle in the playoffs (we sure have, too), but Randle is a winning player in the regular season. In five seasons in New York, Randle led the Knicks to the playoffs three times. The same number of Knicks trips to the playoffs in the previous 15 seasons. FIFTEEN.

• Let’s not forget about NAZ REID. No more KAT also clears a path for more Naz Reid minutes, the NBA’s reigning Sixth Man of the Year.

• Gobert will be playing with a chip on his shoulder. Is this an every season occurrence now? Yes. Does he still have a bad taste in his mouth from Luka’s game-winner and subsequent shit-talk yelling in his face AND getting benched in the Olympics? YES.

• Rookie Rob Dillingham looked mighty fine in the preseason. He’s quick and his jumper is smooth. Preseason must be taken with a grain of salt, but still, you’d rather be good than bad.

Chris Finch has a bit more depth now with Donte DiVincenzo’s shooting from the guard position. DVV’s capable ball-handling alleviates some of the pressure on Dillingham from the jump. (Did you see Big Ragu talking shit in the preseason!?)

Finch is a solid head coach who maximizes the talent on his roster.

What’s the case for the T-Wolves Under?

There is a big risk in changing the winning formula from last season.

• The spacing and runway for Ant to get downhill with a Randle-Gobert frontcourt is not going to be as proficient as it was with KAT’s elite perimeter shooting.

• The depth here overall looks questionable. Gone are both Kyle Anderson and underrated Jordan McLaughlin, two key cogs in the Minnesota rotation the last couple of years. Slow-Mo played 69 and 79 games the last two years as a Swiss army knife for a lot of lineups.

• A lot is on the shoulders of 37-year-old Mike Conley to run this offense. When Conley is off the floor, the Wolves offense has struggled. And when Gobert is off the floor, the defense takes a dip.

• From Bobby Marks preseason article:

  • "We don't want to put too much on any young guy's shoulders, but we're going to put a lot on their shoulders," Wolves president of basketball operations Tim Connelly told KFAN's Darren Wolfson in August.

Growing pains from the above seem all but inevitable.

Final T-Wolves Prediction: We believe too much in Ant, Finch, defense and preseason shit talking. Over 52.5 wins.

1. Oklahoma City Thunder — 57.5 wins

The reigning No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, the Thunder arrived far ahead of schedule last season and they added to their arsenal of talent this summer.

What’s the case for the Over?

The Thunder have hit the Over in three straight seasons and have been a Young Surprise Team in each of the last two, winning more than 10 games (!!) above their preseason Over/Under win total.

It’s worth repeating: the Thunder have gone over by more than 10 games in two straight!

• SGA has blossomed into one of the best players in the league, a proficient scorer whose attack is relentless on a nightly basis.

• Chet was indeed the perfect big-man for this team, a shot-blocking menace and defensive anchor and a floor-spacer more than able to knock down the outside shot.

• J-Dub is the perfect compliment to SGA and Chet on the wing. A scorer from all three levels, Jalen Williams can get a bucket any time he’s needed and he can just as easily take over a game as the primary option if the game script calls for it.

• The offseason arrival of both Caruso and Hartenstein shores up the few weaknesses this roster had, adding another strong defender in Caruso and big-man depth in Hartenstein. The lineup possibilities at Mark Daigneault’s disposal are endless.

• The defensive hounds here, man. The Dorture Chamber. Cason Wallace. CHET. And now Caruso. Shoo wee they are going to be a nightmare for teams to face.

Sam Presti is probably not done adding pieces. He still has that treasure chest of draft picks sitting in his office, waiting to be exploited.

What’s the case for the Thunder Under?

The one thing about the Thunder’s run to 57 wins last season is they were the healthiest team in the league.

Negative regression on the injury front would naturally make replicating that success a more difficult endeavor. And Hartenstein is already out 5 to 6 weeks with a broken hand…

• Losing SGA or Chet any stretch of time would be costly. The same goes for any team’s two best players, but the Thunder even more so given the magnitude of what they bring to the table.

• Giddey was basically unplayable in the playoffs (especially down the stretch), but it’s easy to forget that he was a really big part of running this offense with SGA off the floor. Something to monitor.

• The one thing left that the Thunder lack is a true vet’s vet. Caruso has the most experience on the team at 7 years in the league. This is still one of the youngest teams in the league!

• 58 wins is a really high number in a loaded West. And everybody and their mother seems to be on this Over.

There is always the notion that they will no longer be taking teams by surprise.

The word is out: the Thunder are not only to be taken lightly — they are not to be trifled with.

Final Thunder Prediction: The real storm is still just beginning. Over 57.5 wins.

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