2020-2021 Season Preview - Western Conference
Believe it or not, the 2020-2021 NBA Season is here!
We are previewing the season by looking at both conferences, division by division, and by asking two very important questions for every team:
What’s the case for the Over?
What’s the case for the Under?
We kept these short and sweet, just like the offseason.
Northwest
5. Oklahoma City Thunder
2020-2021 72-game Over/Under: 24.5 wins — 34% winning pct (equivalent for 82-game season: 28 wins)
2019-2020 season winning pct: 61%
What’s the case for the Over?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is still here. The Thunder played with so much joy last season. Smiles were aplenty, none brighter than SGA’s. There will still be no pressure on him at least, perhaps allowing for further burgeoning. Al Horford and George Hill are veterans with big chips on their shoulders, cast away from their Eastern Conference contenders. The defensive menace, Lou Dort, will give opposing players fits. Darius Bazley had a sneaky good rookie season. The 6-11 215 lb rookie Aleksej Pokusevski from Serbia is an intriguing prospect.
What’s the case for the Under?
The West is absolutely loaded from top to bottom, and this roster has the hodgepodge mishmash stop-gap feel of a full blown Lottery-bound TANKazoid.
Final Prediction: Under 24.5 wins, but we actually would not be surprised if OKC is a lot better than most people think.
4. Minnesota Timberwolves
2020-2021 72-game Over/Under: 30.5 wins — 42% winning pct (equivalent for 82-game season: 34 wins)
2019-2020 season winning pct: 30%
What’s the case for the Over?
Eyes will be focused on the #1 overall pick in the draft, Anthony Edwards, but KAT and D-Lo mastering the two-man game with slick pick-and-rolls and sweet pick-and-pops will be the feature presentation you won’t want to miss. Come for the Ant-Man and stay for best friends playing ball together. Ricky Rubio is back where it all started for the Spanish Samurai after his best season in years. The offense should be pretty potent.
What’s the case for the Under?
The enormous concern is Minnesota’s paltry defense. How are they going to stop anybody? Malik Beasley appears to be a loose cannon with legal trouble and whatever the hell is going on with Scottie Pippen’s wife. This roster just doesn’t have a lot of oomph in a conference that’s STACKED.
Final Prediction: Under 30.5 wins, however, we see a lot of T-Wolves Overs in our future. (To clarify, Overs on game totals this season with Minny’s potent offense and paltry defense.)
3. Portland Blazers
2020-2021 72-game Over/Under: 40.5 wins — 56% winning pct (equivalent for 82-game season: 46 wins)
2019-2020 season winning pct: 47%
What’s the case for the Over?
The Bubble Blazers were awesome and then Portland had a stellar offseason. RoCo and even Derrick Jones Jr. will help Dame and C.J. immensely on the defensive side of the ball. Did you see Dame in the bubble? Wilt Disney has shown consistently that he’s able to shoot outrageously like 2015-2016 Steph Curry. Melo has finally bought in to coming off the bench. Mel00 will probably contribute even more going up against opposing bench players. Nurkic has somehow become underrated and was quietly fantastic in the bubble — imagine what he can do with even more practice and reps after his major leg injury.
What’s the case for the Under?
Zach Collins is out for a while and health in general has recently plagued these Blazers. Gary Trent Jr. could have been a one-hit bubble wonder. Perhaps Melo is actually not cool with coming off the bench and is just saying that for now. The youngins, Simons and Little, were underwhelming last season and did not contribute much when called upon.
Final Prediction: Over 40.5 wins and we’re taking a flyer on Dame as the 2020-2021 MVP.
2. Utah Jazz
2020-2021 72-game Over/Under: 43.5 wins — 60% winning pct (equivalent for 82-game season: 50 wins)
2019-2020 season winning pct: 61%
What’s the case for the Over?
The thought of 1st Round of the playoffs nuclear Don Mitch continuing the destruction he started in the bubble. Sometimes those postseason moments on the biggest stage carry over for budding young stars. It’s doubtful that Mike Conley can be as bad as he was at the beginning of last season. Getting Bogdanovic back adds 20 points a night and 40+ percent from three. The Jazz had some serious hot streaks last season and bring back the vast majority of a well-balanced roster. Gobert will be motivated to prove he’s worth anywhere close to the third highest contract in NBA history!
What’s the case for the Under?
Other than bringing back Derrick Favors and adding Shaq Harrison at the last minute, the Jazz had an underwhelming offseason. Mike Conley is 33 years old now and has played a lot of games at the point guard position. Conley and Bogdanovic were never really able to mesh. Perhaps Gobert’s ridiculous contract will cause problems sooner than we think.
Final Prediction: Over 43.5 wins, we don’t see why the Jazz can’t replicate last season or even be slightly better.
1. Denver Nuggets
2020-2021 72-game Over/Under: 43.5 wins — 60% winning pct (equivalent for 82-gm season: 49.5 wins)
2019-2020 season winning pct: 63%
What’s the case for the Over?
The relentlessness and togetherness of this team. The continuity that remains within. If Jamal Murray plays half as good as he did in the bubble, that’s still an upgrade over last year’s regular season Jamal Murray. Jokic continues to be as brilliant and uncanny as ever. Will Barton returns after missing the entire bubble. Speaking of Orlando, Michael Porter Jr. emerged as a dangerous offensive weapon. Unleash Bol Bol!
What’s the case for the Under?
The fact that Jerami Grant is in Detroit. The defense won’t be as good without him. The bubble was a small sample size to count on so much from MPJ.
Final Prediction: Over 43.5 wins. The Nuggets have the offense to roll in the regular season, but the defense could be problematic come playoff time.
Southwest
5. San Antonio Spurs
2020-2021 72-game Over/Under: 31.5 wins — 43% winning pct (equivalent for 82-game season: 35.5 wins)
2019-2020 season winning pct: 45%
What’s the case for the Over?
The old streak is over and it is time to start a new one. Pop will have them prepared. Timmy and Becky will help guide them along. Aldridge started taking and making a bunch of 3’s last season. DeRozan at the 4! Pop leaned on the youth movement in the bubble to good results. Unleash Lonnie Walker!
What’s the case for the Under?
Why are Lonnie Walker and Keldon Johnson so far down on this depth chart? Pop can be stubborn. The new wave of the league could pass San Antonio by. The Spurs need to fully embrace the 3. Speaking of, Bryn Forbes sniping will be missed. This defense was old and slow last year and not much has changed. Except for the fact that the West is even more loaded.
Final Prediction: Under 31.5 wins and it just feels so, so wrong.
4. New Orleans Pelicans
2020-2021 72-game Over/Under: 35.5 wins — 49% winning pct (equivalent for 82-gm season: 40.5 wins)
2019-2020 season winning pct: 42%
What’s the case for the Over?
Zion is unstoppable — a sudden behemoth in the paint, easy buckets on repeat. He’s in the best shape of his life. Zion and Brandon Ingram are figuring out how to play together, maximizing their talents on the court together. The Pellies in transition with Lonzo and Steven Adams outlet passes are going to be a thrill. Jrue Holiday in Milwaukee opens up the door for more Zion and BI.
What’s the case for the Under?
There is not enough spacing or shooting to truly thrive in today’s game. The fit with Stan Van Gundy as the coach of this super youth infused roster is questionable. Zion and Brandon Ingram could struggle to coexist freely. A lack of depth might hold back the Pels.
Final Prediction: Over 35.5 wins. We were thinking Under before we saw Zion in the preseason.
3. Memphis Grizzlies
2020-2021 72-game Over/Under: 30.5 wins — 42% winning pct (equivalent for 82-game season: 34 wins)
2019-2020 season winning pct: 47%
What’s the case for the Over?
The fun house rolls on! You can feel it every time that he laces them up: Ja Morant was born for this. The fearless leader ready to strike, bountiful in quickness and finesse, strength and touch. Brandon Clarke should get a lot more run. Dillon Brooks brings a toughness to the table that you can’t quantify on paper. De’Anthony Melton is everywhere you need him to be. Kyle Anderson kills you slowly. Jaren Jackson Jr. will be back, launching threes and swatting shots.
What’s the case for the Under?
JJJ and Justise Winslow (who was supposed to supplant Crowder) will miss the beginning of the season, still out from injuries from this summer. The element of surprise will be gone. There is not a whole lot of shooting here. The lackluster bubble Grizz without JJJ could have been a look at what’s to come.
Final Prediction: Over 30.5 wins, putting our trust in Ja on this one.
2. Houston Rockets
2020-2021 72-game Over/Under: 34.5 wins — 48% winning pct (equivalent for 82-game season: 39 wins)
2019-2020 season winning pct: 61%
What’s the case for the Over?
Harden has actually shown up. Winning heals all wounds. Harden might play with an even bigger “I don’t give a fuck” attitude that translates to him balling out like always. John Wall and Boogie have looked ready to go, back at it. C-Wood’s presence and even Boogie’s capable shooting opens it all up on offense. Eric Gordon seems due for a bounce back season. He can’t play any worse, can he?
What’s the case for the Under?
The Harden Saga / train wreck continues to the point that Rafael Stone says ENOUGH and accepts a deal for whatever, ready to just get that beard far away. And thus, the rebuild would be on. Wall and Boogie could be a preseason mirage. They could be washed. Eric Gordon, too.
Final Prediction: Under 34.5 wins. A Harden trade seems imminent. (But if we knew Harden was staying, we would pick the Over!)
1. Dallas Mavericks
2020-2021 72-game Over/Under: 41.5 wins — 58% winning pct (equivalent for 82-game season: 47 wins)
2019-2020 season winning pct: 57%
What’s the case for the Over?
Luka ascends to the tip top and becomes MVP of the league. The Mavs size is their grand advantage. Kleber and Dwight Powell (who is back!) fill in for KP no problem. Josh Richardson is the perfect defensive oriented wing next to Luka. Tyrell Terry excels in the Seth Curry role. Trey Burke continues what he started in Orlando. James Johnson is the muscle. Don’t fuck with Luka and the Mavs.
What’s the case for the Under?
No KP spells trouble in terms of being able to be the best version of this team. Seth Curry’s reliable 3 will be missed, possibly too much of a burden for the rookie Terry to take on. THJ seems due for a regression. Same for Burke who might be a bubble anomaly. Could Stephen Silas have meant more to this offense than we realized? What are the chances that the Mavs are able to repeat as one of the most efficient offenses in NBA history?
Final Prediction: Over 41.5 wins. We really don’t like to bet against Luka.
Pacific
5. Sacramento Kings
2020-2021 72-game Over/Under: 27.5 wins — 38% winning pct (equivalent for 82-game season: 31 wins)
2019-2020 season winning pct: 43%
What’s the case for the Over?
The bar is set pretty low. No more Bogey should give Fox and Hield more responsibility and room to work with. Haliburton could be the steal of the draft. Bagley could finally be healthy! This roster is surprisingly well balanced on paper for modern ball. Richaun Holmes (friend of the blog!) keeps getting better and his tenacity and power dunks will get you pumped up. Did you see preseason Kyle Guy!?
What’s the case for the Under?
Hassan Whiteside, Glenn Robinson III and Frank Kaminsky… not exactly a free agent class to write home about. (Kaminsky was already waived.) Luke Walton is the head coach… he has previously not played a style of ball to the strengths of this team, had them playing slow last year when the nickname of the backcourt is literally the Dash Bros!
Final Prediction: Under 27.5 wins, but this team should hopefully be more fun to watch this season.
4. Phoenix Suns
2020-2021 72-game Over/Under: 38.5 wins — 53% winning pct (equivalent for 82-game season: 44 wins)
2019-2020 season winning pct: 47%
What’s the case for the Over?
The Bubble Suns, undefeated, added CP3, the leader of last year’s overachieving Thunder, and Jae Crowder, key contributor to the overachieving Grizzlies and Finals-bound runner up Heat. CP3’s latest renovation project. Those projects usually go well. The Suns will have Ayton for a full season (barring another suspension or injury). Devin Booker looks ready to make his leap.
What’s the case for the Under?
CP3 is on his way to turning 36 years old and he’s due to hit a wall at some point, right? It’s not exactly like he has a clear injury history either. Jae Crowder could be asked to do too much. The Suns got rid of a big, big part of last year’s magical group: Rubio, Oubre and Baynes are all gone. OUR Suns are no more! The bench is pretty thin, too.
Final Prediction: Under 38.5 wins. We have a bad taste in our mouths after they got rid of our guys.
3. Golden State Warriors
2020-2021 72-game Over/Under: 39.5 wins — 55% winning pct (equivalent for 82-game season: 45 wins)
2019-2020 season winning pct: 23%
What’s the case for the Over?
Steph reaches back for 2015-2016 otherworldly form, bending the limits of the game once again. Draymond plays motivated as hell. Wiggins and Oubre thrive as slashers. James Wiseman cleans up down low, the Rookie of the Year. The second unit got reps as starters last year and might contribute more than you would think.
What’s the case for the Under?
The defense can’t stop anybody. Steph doesn’t have enough shooting surrounding him to give him optimal space to fully flourish. Darymond turns out to actually be washed. Wiggins remains a bust. The very beginning of last season before Steph broke his hand was an ominous preview of what’s to come in a Klay-less, KD-less, Iggy-less and Livingston-less world.
Final Prediction: Under 39.5 wins and honestly, we hope that we are wrong.
2. Los Angeles Clippers
2020-2021 72-game Over/Under: 47.5 wins — 65% winning pct (equivalent for 82-game season: 54 wins)
2019-2020 season winning pct: 68%
What’s the case for the Over?
There should not be a team in the NBA more motivated than the Clippers this season. Paul George Revenge Tour. Kawhi Leonard Revenge Tour. Kawhi plays with emotion!? Serge Ibaka’s arrival as the ultimate stabilizer. Another trade will happen at some point and could give the Clips what they need for the playoffs.
What’s the case for the Under?
Jared Dudley said on The Bill Simmons podcast that he knew when the Clippers blew it vs. the Thunder in 2014 that the Clippers were toast, ain’t no coming back from that. That could be the case here. The bubble demons may never leave. Who is the leader? Are we really buying that it’s Ty Lue? Batum is W A S H E D and we would advise against counting on him.
Final Prediction: Over 47.5 wins. We originally had the Under, but even though the Clippers will still be the hunted, revenge is a very powerful motivator.
1. Los Angeles Lakers
2020-2021 72-game Over/Under: 48.5 wins — 67% winning pct (equivalent for 82-game season: 55 wins)
2019-2020 season winning pct: 73%
What’s the case for the Over?
The Champs won the offseason. The rich get richer. The best 1-2 punch in the league now has potentially the best bench in the NBA. Frank Vogel is still not getting enough credit for his game planning and thorough preparation. Talen Horton-Tucker, HELLO!!!
What’s the case for the Under?
It would probably be in the best interest for the Lakers, coming off the shortest offseason in professional sports history, to rest and load manage, especially one LeBron James in the 18th year of his career. The Champs will have an even bigger target on their backs, always getting the best from the opposition on a nightly basis.
Final Prediction: Over 48 wins. The Champs are deep AF and coming for that repeat!
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The season is HERE.
We love this game!
